SEC Power Surge: Our 1st Bracketology Projections

Published: Fri, 02/14/25

Updated: Fri, 02/14/25

By The Numbers: College Basketball Newsletter

SEC = Basketball Conference?

The SEC has been the powerhouse of this season, with a strong chance to claim five of the eight spots among the top two seed lines. Even more impressively, three SEC teams—Auburn, Florida, and Alabama—are in contention for No. 1 seeds.

Here’s a look at the numbers behind the SEC’s historic dominance this season:

  • SEC teams went 185-23 (89%) in non-conference games.
  • Against the other Top 6 conferences (ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, and Mountain West), they went 62-19 (77%).
  • All but one of the 16 SEC teams went 11-2 or better in non-conference play. The exception was South Carolina, which went 10-3 and is currently winless in conference play.
  • The conference has only six losses to teams not in our projected 2025 NCAA Tournament field today, half of those by South Carolina.
  • 13 of the 16 teams are inside our Top 50 in power ratings, with No. 83 South Carolina the only team outside the Top 65.

In early November, we had 11 SEC teams projected to make the NCAA Tournament. Based on our probability calculations, the average expected number of SEC teams in the field was 9.1.

However, in our latest bracket update, the SEC’s outlook has improved significantly. We now have 13 teams projected in the field, with an average of 12.6 expected to make the NCAA Tournament.

    St. John’s: The Johnnies were left out of last year’s tournament and started this season unranked. Rick Pitino’s squad is now the Big East's top team and sits at 12-2 in conference play after a road win at Connecticut earlier this week.

    Florida: The Gators were seen as a good but not great team, ranked No. 21 preseason and coming off a No. 7 seed last year. Now, they’re in contention for a No. 1 seed with a month until Selection Sunday.

    Missouri: The Tigers were winless in SEC play last season, but a new group of transfers has them not only in the tournament but projected as a No. 5 seed in our latest bracket.

    Louisville: The Cardinals have gone 12-52 over the last two seasons, but under new head coach Pat Kelsey (previously at Charleston), they appear poised to return to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2019.

    North Carolina: The Tar Heels were a No. 1 seed last year and a preseason Top 10 team. However, they are currently on the wrong side of the bubble after a 14-11 start.

    Indiana: The Hoosiers were ranked in the Top 20 preseason but have struggled. Reports indicate that head coach Mike Woodson could step down at the end of the season.

    Connecticut: The two-time defending champions were expected to reload (preseason AP No. 3), but this season has been defined more by head coach Danny Hurley’s tirades than by quality wins. They are currently projected as a No. 7 seed.

    Kansas: The Jayhawks still project as a No. 4 seed, but they were the preseason consensus No. 1 team. If they finish outside the top three seed lines, it will be the first time since 2000-2001 that Kansas has failed to do so in back-to-back seasons—before Bill Self arrived.

College Basketball Picks for Feb. 14-15:
  • ⭐⭐⭐ Pick
    UCLA vs. Indiana UNDER 139.5

    FRI @ 8 PM (ET)

  • ⭐⭐⭐ Pick
    Columbia vs. Dartmouth OVER 160.5

    FRI @ 6 PM (ET)

  • ⭐⭐⭐ Pick
    Auburn vs. Alabama UNDER 172.5

    SAT @ 4 PM (ET)
View All Model Picks
Marquee Matchups & Key Games To Watch
(rankings according to TeamsRankings.com)
  • #23 UCLA (-1.5) vs. #50 Indiana
    TR Hotness Score: 96.7🔥
    FRI @ 8 PM (ET), FOX

  • #1 Auburn vs. #2 Alabama (-1.5)
    TR Hotness Score: 99.9🔥🔥🔥
    SAT @ 4 PM (ET), ESPN

  • #3 Houston (-1.5) vs. #8 Arizona
    TR Hotness Score: 99.7🔥🔥
    SAT @ 2 PM (ET), ESPN

  • #18 Wisconsin vs. #9 Purdue (-5.5)
    TR Hotness Score: 99.0🔥🔥
    SAT @ 1 PM (ET), CBS
View Full Schedule
NCAA Tournament Bracket Prediction
(as of February 14th)

📈 Last Week's Risers To Make Tourney

  1. Arkansas: 52% (+36%)
  2. Nebraska: 61% (+26%)
  3. New Mexico: 75% (+26%)
  4. Wake Forest: 51% (+23%)

📉 Last Week's Fallers To Make Tourney

  1. Pittsburgh: 45% (-41%)
  2. Utah State: 40% (-26%)
  3. Vanderbilt: 34% (-23%)
  4. UCF: 8% (-18%)
View Bracket Preview

🔥 Top 5 ATS Teams 🔥

  1. San Jose St: 81%
  2. C. Conn: 76%
  3. Houston Christian: 76%
  4. UCSD: 76%
  5. Rob Morris: 75%

🏆 Projected #1 Seeds 🏆

  1. Auburn
  2. Duke
  3. Alabama
  4. Florida

❌ Bottom 5 ATS Teams ❌

  1. Sam Houston St: 20%
  2. W Illinois: 25%
  3. Miami: 27%
  4. Vermont: 27%
  5. E Washington: 29%

💰 Odds To Win Tourney 💰

  1. Auburn: 22%
  2. Duke: 19%
  3. Houston: 15%
  4. Alabama: 6%

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