Too Big to Fail?
How Mega Conferences Have Shaped The Bubble
Remember the uproar in 2011 when the Big East sent an unprecedented 11 of 16 teams to the NCAA Tournament?
It was the first year of the expanded 68-team field, and the reaction was loud: “How can one conference take up so much of the bracket?” Yet, that Big East group included
eventual national champion UConn, validating the committee’s decision.
Fast forward to 2025, and what once seemed unheard of is now a realistic discussion point—but on an even bigger scale.
Conference realignment has created true mega conferences:
- Big Ten: 18 teams
-
SEC: 16 teams
-
Big 12: 16 teams
- ACC: 18 teams
It’s no longer uncommon to see conferences like the ACC, Big Ten, or SEC send eight or nine teams to the tournament. But the standards we’ve grown accustomed to will be pushed to the brink this year.
Can the SEC Really Get 14 Teams In?
In our latest bracket update (as of Friday, Feb. 21), 13 SEC teams were projected in the field. That includes Arkansas and Oklahoma just squeezing into the First Four—a fluid situation that could shift in the coming weeks.
Still, let’s hypothetically say this is the Selection Committee’s bracket. They’re now faced with a tough question: If Georgia sits firmly on the bubble, do they make room for a 14th SEC team?
Historically, That's Never Been Done
Since the tournament expanded in 2011, no conference besides the Big East that year has eclipsed double-digit bids. The Big Ten and ACC have come close with nine in recent seasons, but 13 or 14 bids from a single conference? That’s unprecedented.
What would the Committee do in this situation? If they decide that sending nearly 90% of the SEC to the tournament is overkill, they may pivot to include a deserving team from another conference—perhaps a mid-major with a strong résumé but fewer marquee wins.
This Magnifies an Age-Old Dilemma
The dilemma becomes a clash between two philosophies:
1) Rewarding the gauntlet of mega-conference play (where even middle-tier teams boast several Quad 1 wins)
OR
2) Prioritizing conference diversity to avoid oversaturating the field with familiar matchups.
Then comes the challenge of distributing these teams across regions to avoid early-round conference matchups.
The Numbers Tell the Story
With
68 total spots—37 of which are at-large bids—filling
13 or 14 of those with SEC teams would consume over a third of the available at-larges. That’s a hefty slice for one league, no matter how competitive.
The Selection Committee has historically favored variety over loading the bracket with teams from a single conference—2011’s Big East outlier remains the lone
exception—we now find ourselves in unprecedented times with conference realignment.
It feels like only a matter of time before those historical patterns shatter.
The Committee's Tough Decision
For the Selection Committee, it’s a fascinating dilemma. For potential 13th or 14th SEC teams like Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Georgia, it’s a nerve-wracking ride that will shape the final stretch of the season.
