Not All Records Are Created Equal
With 346 Division I teams in college basketball—triple the number of college football teams—the competitive landscape varies wildly. Teams might face future NBA talent on Thursday, then play against virtually unknown programs on Saturday.
This dramatic swing in competition quality creates the perfect conditions for market inefficiencies. As teams progress through their November-to-April schedules, they're often significantly overvalued or undervalued based on how they've performed against dramatically different levels of competition.
Our staff decided to dig into the data to find those teams.
Which Teams Are Overvalued & Undervalued?
By analyzing performance data from the five major conferences, we compared how teams performed against high-quality opponents (6.0 or greater in our NCAAB Team Rankings) versus weaker competition (rating under 6.0).
The results uncovered several potentially overvalued and undervalued teams as we head into March. Here are some of the notables:
Overvalued Teams
(Photo by Jason Mowry/Icon Sportswire)
Ohio State: The Buckeyes dominated weaker opponents (7-0 ATS) but are 13 points worse on average when facing tougher competition (8-13 ATS). Some of this could be due to the loss of guard Meechie Johnson in December. The Buckeyes are only 5-9 ATS since January when the spread is within 10 points.
Michigan: While the Wolverines are near the top of the Big Ten standings, they show a notable split in performance by opponent quality. They’re 7-1 ATS against the weakest teams but 6-13 ATS versus everyone else. With two 7-foot starters, Michigan's size may overpower weaker teams. However, against the top 100 defensive teams in block
percentage, they’re 0-6 ATS.
Undervalued Teams
(Photo by Bryan Lynn/Icon Sportswire)
Missouri: The Tigers, featuring several new transfers, have improved as the season progressed. Although they were only 3-7 ATS when favored by double digits against weaker opponents in November and December, they are 13-4 ATS against stronger competition this year.
Louisville: The Cardinals have surged under new head coach Pat Kelsey. After a 6-5 start, they’ve gone on a strong run that includes 13-5 ATS against tougher opponents. They’ve been 10 points better since January, and their one poor recent game coincided with point guard Chucky Hepburn’s absence.
The Bottom Line For Your CBB Strategy
While these trends aren't definitive answers, they highlight valuable patterns worth monitoring heading into March Madness. Recognizing these overvalued and undervalued teams could provide a significant advantage when placing bets or filling out brackets.
At BetIQ, our team is committed to continuous research and refinement throughout March, leveraging our data and tools to ensure our predictive models are the best in the industry.
It's going to be an exciting month of college basketball, and we're looking forward to sharing more insights as the tournament approaches.
