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Will 2025 Crown a First-Time NCAA Champion?
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As March Madness 2025 approaches, one of the biggest questions is whether a new team will win the NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship.
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While the tournament is famous for upsets and Cinderella stories, history shows that past champions often reclaim the throne.
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So, what are the odds that this year will be different?
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Right now, our projections give a 55% chance that we’ll see a first-time champion in 2025. But with so many powerhouse programs in the mix, it could be tricky.
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🏆 Past Champions Looking to Add Another Banner
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The road to a new champion won’t be easy—18 past champions are projected to make the tournament field. These teams have the experience, coaching, and tournament pedigree that make them dangerous every year.
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- Duke
- Florida
- Michigan State
- Kentucky
- Maryland
- Michigan
- Oregon
- Louisville
- Marquette
- Arizona
- UCLA
- Kansas
- UConn
- Baylor
- Indiana
- Ohio State
- Arkansas
- North Carolina
With programs like Duke, Kansas, and Kentucky in the mix, it’s no surprise that past champions continue to dominate March Madness.
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📈 How Often Does a New Team Win It All?
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Over the last 20 years, only five teams have won their first-ever national title:
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- Baylor (2021)
- Virginia (2019)
- Florida (2006)
- Syracuse (2003)
- Maryland (2002)
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That’s just 25% of champions in the last two decades, reinforcing how tough it is for new teams to break through.
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🔥 Top Contenders Seeking Their First Title
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Despite history favoring the blue bloods, several high-seed teams have a legitimate shot at winning their first championship:
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Auburn (Projected Top Seed): Bruce Pearl’s team has been dominant and could finally break through after years of steady success.
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Houston: One of the most consistent programs under Kelvin Sampson, the Cougars made a Final Four in 2021 and are built for another deep run.
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Alabama: A high-powered offense makes the Crimson Tide a serious threat to capture their first title. Remember, they made the Final Four last year (lost to eventual champ UConn).
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Texas Tech, Iowa State, and St. John’s: These teams have had flashes of brilliance and, while not favorites, could make unexpected deep runs.
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📊 A Closer Look at the Odds
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Duke is the favorite to win it all (as of Friday, March 7), making them the most likely repeat champion. But here’s where things get interesting—five of the next six teams with the best title odds have never won a national championship.
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Here’s the latest snapshot:
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- Duke (+350) 🏆
- Auburn (+370) - never won a title
- Houston (+800) - never won a title
- Florida (+800) 🏆
- Tennessee (+1400) - never won a title
- Alabama (+1500) - never won a title
- Saint John’s (+2500) - never won a title
- Michigan State (+2500) 🏆
- Iowa State (+2500) - never won a title
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Compared to past years, 2025 will be one of the best chances we’ve seen for a first-time champion in some time.
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Of course, odds can shift, but right now, Duke and Florida are the biggest obstacles to a new champion, with Michigan State and Maryland also lurking as repeat contenders.
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With such a wide-open field, this could be the year we finally see a new team cut down the nets. Stay tuned—March is going to be wild!
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College Basketball Picks for Saturday, March 8:
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- ⭐⭐⭐ Pick
Drake -7.5 (vs. Belmont)
SAT @ 3:30 PM (ET)
- ⭐⭐⭐ Pick
UMBC +13.5 (vs. Bryant)
SAT @ 4 PM (ET)
- ⭐⭐⭐ Pick
Grand Canyon vs. Abilene Christian OVER 143.5
SAT @ 4 PM (ET)
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NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions
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(as of March 6th)
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📈 This Week's Risers To Make Tourney
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- Omaha: 48% (+36%)
- Xavier: 76% (+34%)
- S. Dakota: 33% (+27%)
- SIU Edward: 44% (+22%)
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📉 This Week's Fallers To Make Tourney
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- Nebraska: 33% (-42%)
- Boise State: 23% (-19%)
- San Diego St: 57% (-17%)
- Utah State: 57% (-16%)
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- Oklahoma
- Boise St
- Texas
- Nebraska
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- San Diego St
- Indiana
- North Carolina
- Xavier
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- UCSD: 79.3%
- Florida A&M: 77.8%
- Robert Morris: 77.4%
- Florida: 73.3%
- C. Connecticut: 71.4%
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- Duke: 54%
- Auburn: 49%
- Houston: 40%
- Florida: 30%
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- CS Fullerton: 25.0%
- E. Washington: 25.0%
- Princeton: 29.6%
- Alabama A&M: 29.6%
- South Florida: 30.0%
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- Duke: 26%
- Auburn: 19%
- Houston: 13%
- Florida: 7%
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Matchups & Key Games To Watch
(rankings according to TeamRankings.com)
- #10 Arizona vs #14 Kansas (-3.5)
TR Hotness Score: 99.4🔥🔥🔥
SAT @ 4:30 PM (ET), ESPN
- #5 Alabama vs. #2 Auburn (-8)
TR Hotness Score: 99.3🔥🔥🔥
SAT @ 2:30 PM (ET), ESPN
- #15 St John's vs. #19 Marquette (-3.5)
TR Hotness Score: 99.0🔥🔥🔥
SAT @ 12 PM (ET), FOX
- #3 Houston (-4.5) vs. #24 Baylor
TR Hotness Score: 98.6🔥🔥
SAT @ 10 PM (ET), ESPN
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