Are You Following the Right Bracket Advice? 🤔

Selection Sunday is almost here, and with it comes an avalanche of bad bracket advice.

You’ll hear the usual “rules”—like “always pick two 12-seeds in the first round”—but blindly following these trends won’t lead to success in your bracket contest.

You need a smarter approach—one that cuts through the noise and focuses on a strategy that actually works.

After analyzing tens of thousands of brackets (since 2017), here are the key strategies we found to give your bracket the best chance.

Just because a team earns a No. 1 seed doesn’t mean they’re built for a deep run. Some years, top seeds dominate, like in 2015 when three of four No. 1 seeds made the Final Four.

Other years, the top dogs stumble early. That happened in 2014. Only a single No. 1 seed made the Final Four, and the championship game featured No. 7 UConn beating No. 8 Kentucky.

In 2019, the public overlooked No. 1 Gonzaga and Virginia, even though advanced metrics pointed to their strength. So keep in mind that contrarian plays don’t always mean Cinderella-style upsets.

Look beyond the number next to a team’s name. Some No. 1 seeds are worth backing, while others might be a little overrated.

Not all Cinderella stories are created equal. A team’s seed line doesn’t always reflect its true potential.

Take these past examples:

● In 2017, 10-seed Wichita State was actually favored in the first round.

● In 2019, 12-seed Oregon had top-25 predictive metrics and cruised past Wisconsin.

Seeding isn’t perfect, and there are always inefficiencies. That’s why the best approach is to find objective stats—factoring in adjusted ratings, odds, and key metrics to get a clearer read on a team’s real strength.

No two NCAA Tournaments are the same, and your bracket strategy should adjust every year.

Finding the right balance between risk and reward is crucial:

✅ Pick too many upsets? Your bracket could bust early.

✅ Play it too safe? You might not gain an edge.

Winning your pool isn’t about picking the perfect bracket—it’s about making smart strategic decisions. Recognizing where to take risks and where to play it safe separates the best brackets from the rest.

Picking an upset feels great—but does it actually help you win?

People often overload their brackets with risky picks just to sound smart if one of them hits. But what’s the point of calling one big upset if your entire bracket is wrecked by the Sweet 16?

One well-placed strategic pick can outweigh five reckless ones. Instead of hunting for longshots, focus on picks that give you the best shot at winning your pool.

There’s a lot to consider when building a bracket: seed value, pick percentages, public biases, and the overall structure of your pool.

The good news? You don’t have to do all the work yourself.

Our 2025 Bracket Optimizer factors in everything:

✅ Your pool’s size and scoring system

✅ Public pick trends (so you know where to get leverage)

✅ Advanced ratings & odds to find the smartest approach

With this, you can build your bracket alongside real data—not just gut instinct.

We’ve made it easy. Get early access to our Bracket Optimizer now so you’re ready to go before the tournament tips off.

College Hoops Picks for Thursday, March 13:

• ⭐⭐⭐ Pick
  Louisiana Tech +1.5 (vs. Middle Tennessee St.)
  THU @ 9 PM (ET)


• ⭐⭐⭐ Pick
  Nevada vs. Colorado St. UNDER 138
  THU @ 9 PM (ET)


• ⭐⭐⭐ Pick
  Morgan St. vs. Howard OVER 160.5
  THU @ 6 PM (ET)

NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions

(as of March 13)

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