When filling out your NCAA Tournament bracket, it’s easy to focus too much on seed numbers rather than the teams themselves. One of the most common concerns we hear: Is picking too many No. 1 seeds a mistake?
The Myth of Avoiding No. 1 Seeds
Many believe selecting all No. 1 seeds is too safe or too popular to win, but the data tells a different story. Nearly half of all Final Four teams have been No. 1 seeds. While it’s rare for all four to make it, that doesn’t mean you should avoid them entirely.
Some years, top seeds are the best play:
2008: Taking all four No. 1 seeds to the Final Four was the correct move.
2017: Two No. 1 seeds we recommended made it to the championship game.
The key is knowing when to trust them and when to mix things up.
The Challenge of Picking the Right Combination
Even if you expect multiple No. 1 seeds to reach the Final Four, selecting the right ones is no easy task.
For example, if two No. 1 seeds, a No. 2 seed, and a No. 3 seed make it, there are 12 different possible combinations. Blindly avoiding top seeds can actually lower your chances of getting it right.
Understanding the Data
Historically, No. 1 seeds have reached the Final Four almost twice as often as No. 2 seeds (62 times vs. 32). In fact, they’ve nearly advanced as often as all teams seeded No. 2 through No. 4 combined (62 times vs. 64).
Cinderella runs happen, but picking the right top seeds is still the best way to maximize correct picks. Of course, that’s if they make sense, given the context of that tournament.
Smarter Bracket Strategies
Instead of avoiding No. 1 seeds, the better approach is to identify the strongest ones and pair them with mid-level seeds that have the best chance to make a deep run.
Our expert analysis helps you:
✅ Find the top seeds most likely to advance ✅ Identify mid-tier teams with upset potential ✅ Build a smarter bracket with a balance of safe and high-upside picks
Want to dominate your bracket pool? Our customized brackets and expert tools help you maximize your edge, giving you the best shot at winning based on the specific rules of your pool.
