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March Madness 2025: Instant Bracket Reactions & Key Storylines
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The 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket is here, and we’ve had a few hours to digest the matchups. While we’ll dive deeper into the data and projections soon, here are our instant takeaways from Selection Sunday.
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Favorites at the Top, Chaos Below
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This year, we have a strong set of No. 1 seeds—our four highest-rated teams earned those top spots. That hasn’t always been the case in past years. But after the top four? It’s a mess. The No. 8 seeds might actually be stronger than the No. 5-7 seeds, making for some intriguing early-round matchups. If you’re looking for potential bracket
chaos, this might be the year to find it in the middle seed lines. |
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Alabama Injury Concern?
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Alabama landed on the No. 2 line, but we’ve slightly downgraded them due to injury concerns. Forward Grant Nelson (11.8 PPG, 7.3 RPG) missed the second half of their SEC Tournament loss to Florida, and his status for the First Round remains unclear. Head coach Nate Oats didn’t sound overly confident, saying, “Hopefully we get him back.” If
Nelson isn’t 100%, Alabama’s path gets much tougher. |
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Gonzaga: A Dangerous No. 8 Seed?
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Gonzaga landing as a No. 8 seed isn’t a shock—their metrics were solid, but they lost most of their key games early in the season. Still, this program has made nine straight Sweet 16s. If history is any indication, the Bulldogs won’t be an easy out.
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Defending Champs in the Shadows
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UConn isn’t a No. 1 seed, but let’s not forget: They’re the two-time defending national champions. Danny Hurley’s squad had an uneven season, partly due to injuries (Liam McNeeley missed time). But if they’re fully healthy, they’re still a serious contender.
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Louisville at No. 8: A Head-Scratcher?
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No team was a bigger seeding surprise than Louisville. Bracketologists expected them closer to a No. 6 seed, yet they landed on the No. 8 line. New head coach Pat Kelsey has transformed this team, and after a slow start, they’ve won 21 of their last 23 games. This is not your typical No. 8 seed. |
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Duke’s Path Looks Favorable
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Once again, Duke gets a solid draw. The Blue Devils won’t face a team rated in our top 30 in the second round. No. 9 Baylor is undersized after losing a key post player. No. 8 Mississippi State? They’re 0-9 this season against teams in the top 25 in offensive efficiency. Duke fits that profile perfectly. |
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Colorado State Favored at No. 12?
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The betting markets have already spoken—No. 12 Colorado State is actually favored over No. 5 Memphis. Colorado State is the highest-rated team outside the top 8 seed lines. Memphis? They’re the lowest-rated team inside that group. This might not even be an upset. |
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Michigan’s Tough Turnaround
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Michigan is another No. 5 seed in a tough spot. After playing in the Big Ten title game late Sunday, they now have to fly to Denver and play on Thursday—at elevation—against No. 12 UC-San Diego (30-4). UCSD is elite at forcing turnovers, while Michigan struggles to take care of the ball (ranking 328th in offensive turnover rate). That’s a
dangerous matchup. |
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Injury Uncertainty Looms Large
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This year’s bracket feels more uncertain than usual due to injuries. Several key players are question marks heading into the First Round, including:
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Duke (No. 1, East): Cooper Flagg (ankle) missed the last two games but is expected to return.
Alabama (No. 2, East): Grant Nelson (knee) left their last game.
Texas Tech (No. 3, West): Darrion Williams & Chance McMillian missed their last game.
Iowa State (No. 3, South): Keshon Gilbert is out for the tournament; Tamin Lipsey missed the last game.
Kentucky (No. 3, Midwest): Lamont Butler (shoulder) is dealing with a lingering issue.
Clemson (No. 5, Midwest): Dillon Hunter (hand) is out.
Missouri (No. 6, West): Mark Mitchell (knee) missed the SEC Tournament finale.
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These injuries could shift expectations in the coming days. Stay tuned—we’ll be monitoring updates and what they mean for the bracket.
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