The Surprising Success Of First Four Teams

Published: Tue, 03/18/25

Updated: Tue, 03/18/25

The Surprising Success of First Four Teams

Since the NCAA tournament expanded to 68 teams in 2011, the First Four has become a proving ground for teams battling to enter the main bracket. While many overlook these play-in squads, history tells a different story—one that savvy bracket builders should pay attention to.

When we analyze the at-large First Four teams (those seeded 10-14), the data is eye-opening:

- In 12 of the last 13 tournaments (all except 2019), at least one First Four team has advanced past the First Round.

- First Four at-large winners have gone on to win 12 of 26 (or 46.1%) First Round games. That's high compared to the overall First Round win rate for No. 11 seeds (39%) and No. 12 seeds (35%).

- Five of these teams reached the Sweet 16, two made the Elite Eight, and two (VCU in 2011, UCLA in 2021) reached the Final Four as 11-seeds.

What Gives First Four Winners an Edge?

Momentum and experience may play a role—winning in Dayton builds confidence and helps teams shake off tournament nerves. However, there’s also a downside: tight turnarounds and travel fatigue.

So, does playing in the First Four create an advantage or a disadvantage? It depends. Matchups, travel, and team strength all matter.

How Should This Impact Your Bracket Strategy?

While First Four teams have a strong track record of early-round upsets, blindly picking them isn’t the best approach. Smart bracket strategy requires more nuance:

- Use objective metrics to assess team strength.
- Check betting markets and team ratings for win probability.
- Identify value by analyzing public pick trends.
- Adjust strategy based on pool size and scoring.

This data-driven approach gives you the best shot at winning your pool.

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