March Madness 2025: Favorites Prevail, Upsets Fade
March Madness is known for chaos—buzzer beaters, bracket-busting upsets, and Cinderellas making deep runs. But in 2025, the madness has been muted. All 16 top-four seeds reached the Round of 32, and for the first time ever, the Sweet 16 features only teams from four power conferences: the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, and ACC. Not a single mid-major
remains.
The only true surprise came when No. 10 Arkansas knocked off No. 2 St. John’s in the Second Round. Now, Arkansas is the only team seeded lower than No. 6 still standing—an unusual setup that shifts the outlook for how bracket pools will be won this year.
What It Means for Bracket Pools: A Higher-Scoring Year?
At PoolGenius, we always remind players that bracket success isn’t just about making the most correct picks. It’s about scoring the most points relative to your opponents.
In years filled with upsets and low seeds making Final Four runs, winners can emerge with brackets that miss several picks—because nobody else nailed the chaos either.
But the bar to win rises fast in chalk-heavy years, where favorites dominate. If you're going to win your pool in 2025, you’ll likely need a high-scoring bracket that nails most of the late-round points.
Favorites in Control (For Now)
So far, that’s how 2025 is trending. All four No. 1 seeds are still alive. Three of the four No. 2 seeds remain. Only one team outside the top six seeds has survived.
Last year looked similar heading into the Sweet 16—until chaos hit in the second weekend. No. 11 NC State made the Final Four. No. 4 Alabama survived a stacked region.
But even then, most winning entries were carried by having the Connecticut vs. Purdue final—two No. 1 seeds. You didn’t need to pick all the upsets; you just needed to be right about the most important games.
That’s likely the blueprint again in 2025: unless a long shot like Arkansas, BYU, or Ole Miss makes a run, brackets with clean paths for top seeds are most likely to win.
Updated National Title Odds
As the field shrinks, the favorites remain unchanged. Duke (+225) and Florida (+310) lead the pack, with Houston and Auburn not far behind. Here’s a look at the top eight title contenders heading into the Sweet 16:
Duke
+220
Florida
+420
Auburn
+480
Houston
+550
Alabama
+1500
Tennessee
+1700
Texas Tech
+1900
TMichigan State
+2600
Duke, riding a 29–1 stretch, is the biggest favorite to advance to the Elite Eight, opening with an 8.5-point spread over Arizona. Florida is next but faces a tougher test—just 6.5-point favorites over Maryland.
The Title Picture Is Narrowing
Remember: 13 of the last 17 national champions have been No. 1 seeds. Both oddsmakers and bettors are leaning in that direction again. Duke is attracting the most action from bettors (27% of money, 22% of bets), with Florida close behind.
While anything can happen in March, the data—and the bracket results so far—point to a tournament where top seeds continue to carry the weight, and most winning brackets will likely lean heavily on them.
A Shift in the March Madness Landscape?
Before the tournament, we pointed out that the No. 1 seeds—Auburn, Florida, Duke, and Houston—were in a class of their own. That’s not always the case. Some years, the top seeds are only marginally better than the 3s and 4s. Not this time.
And it raises a bigger question: Is this the start of a broader shift?
With NIL, the transfer portal, and more top players sticking around, elite talent is gravitating toward the same handful of programs. Great players from smaller schools or struggling teams are opting into contenders. If that trend continues, the gap between the top and the middle may only grow—making March Madness somewhat more predictable than it
used to be.
That’s something we’re watching closely—and our ratings catch and reflect it, just like they did this year. The smartest bracket strategy adapts to the landscape. And so do we.
Sweet 16 Brackets and More are Ready!
Dive into our exclusive content for the Sweet 16 "Second Chance" pools! Along with the updated brackets, we’ve got expert betting picks, in-depth NCAA survivor pool analysis, and a comprehensive recap of the First and Second Rounds.
Also, don’t miss out on our MLB model picks as we gear up for Opening Day this Thursday. It’s an exciting week in sports, and we’ve got you covered!
