The Sweet 16 gives you a clean slate in second-chance brackets—but strategy shifts depending on the size of your pool. Whether in a 10-person office contest or a 10,000-entry online bracket challenge, here’s how to think about your picks now.
Smaller Pools: Play It Safe
In smaller Sweet 16 pools, conservative picks tend to win. There are only 15 games left, so the margin for error is small.
Most people in these contests try too hard to stand out, picking upsets that don’t materialize. Let them make those mistakes. If you stick with higher seeds and avoid unnecessary risks, you give yourself a great chance to win by simply not falling behind.
Larger Pools: Smart Differentiation
In bigger pools, safe picks won’t separate you from the crowd. This is where calculated risk comes into play. You’re not swinging wildly—you’re looking for value picks that are strong but underpicked.
A team like No. 3 Texas Tech or No. 4 Maryland could beat a favorite like No. 1 Florida in the Elite Eight or Sweet 16. If that happens, you gain massive ground without needing to hit a miracle upset (or a series of long shots).
Should You Fade the No. 1 Seeds?
The No. 1 seeds, Florida, Auburn, Duke, and Houston, have looked great—and they’ll be in nearly every bracket. Fading them is risky, but it can also be the move that wins your pool.
Florida will be one of the most popular Final Four picks. If you think they’re vulnerable, taking a shot with a team like No. 4 Maryland (as mentioned above) could give you a real edge.
Or, if you are in a smaller pool, taking No. 1 Auburn over No. 1 Florida in the Final Four (while nailing the other picks) could give you the differentiation you need.
Bottom Line: Know Your Pool
The best Sweet 16 strategy depends entirely on pool size. In smaller contests, stick with favorites and stay steady. In larger ones, find value in teams like No. 3 Texas Tech, No. 4 Maryland, or others that could take out the chalk picks and boost your upside.
And no matter your pool size, keep an eye on pick popularity—it’s often the hidden factor that decides who wins.
Sweet 16 Brackets and More Are Ready!
Dive into our exclusive content for the Sweet 16 "Second Chance" pools! Along with the updated brackets, we’ve got expert betting picks, in-depth NCAA survivor pool analysis, and a comprehensive recap of the First and Second Rounds.
Also, don’t miss out on our MLB model picks as we gear up for Opening Day this Thursday. It’s an exciting week in sports, and we’ve got you covered!
