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NCAA Bracket Watch: 5 Up, 5 Down, 5 to Watch
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We’re past the halfway point of this college basketball season, and there’s finally enough data to start painting the outline of a picture when it comes to the field of 68.
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In about a month, the selection committee will announce its current top 16 seeds during their annual preview show, a day that signals that March Madness is truly right around the corner.
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It’s a useful checkpoint to take about two weeks into January and see where teams stand right now. Some programs have made real moves on their seed line, while others have slipped and now need to stack quality wins to protect their March resume.
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5 Risers: Teams Climbing the Bracket
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1. Is Nebrasketball for real?
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If the season ended today, Nebraska could legitimately be a No. 2 seed. Some predictive models still aren’t fully convinced they can sustain this level, but the résumé to this point is strong enough that it’s hard to argue with that current projection. The big question now is whether the efficiency profile catches up and holds steady through March.
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2. Texas A&M keeps trending up.
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Texas A&M is one of the biggest risers this week. A week ago, there really wasn’t a clear argument to include the Aggies in most brackets. Now they’re unbeaten over the last five weeks, highlighted by a Quad 1 road win at Auburn, plus a confident win over Oklahoma in the last seven days.
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3. Virginia enjoying one of the quietest turnarounds in the country.
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Virginia is now 16th in the NET, 15th on KenPom, and 18th on TeamRankings, with a 6-2 record across Quad 1 and Quad 2. The context that makes it pop: they finished 99th overall according to TeamRankings last year.
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For a first-year head coach, that’s a massive swing. Ryan Odom has a track record of building quickly, too, taking both Utah State and VCU to the tournament in his second season at each stop.
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4. Clemson goes from fringe to firm in one month.
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Clemson’s stock is climbing fast. A week ago, TeamRankings had the Tigers at a 77% chance to make the tournament. They opened the year below 50%. Now they’re up to 92%, which is a major shift in a short window.
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The résumé supports it too: Clemson is one of only 10 teams nationally with 7+ wins in Quad 1 and Quad 2.
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5. Wisconsin shows what one signature win can do.
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Wisconsin’s tournament odds jumped 39.2% week over week. That’s what happens when you beat a Michigan team (on the road, nonetheless) most people have treated like the top title threat, with the shortest odds to win it all. One result like that can change your profile overnight.
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5 Fallers: Teams Feeling the Squeeze
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1. St. John’s: From preseason buzz to bubble stress
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TeamRankings’ predictive S-Curve still sees St. John’s as a team that could play its way into a No. 4 seed. But the résumé right now looks much closer to the cut line than the top 20.
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They’re under .500 against Quad 1 and Quad 2 opponents, and the Q3 loss to Providence is the type of result that gets punished heavily. The profile can still turn, but the pressure is on quickly if they want to avoid living on the bubble all the way to March.
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2. Michigan: A slip without a collapse
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Michigan slid to the No. 2 overall seed in the projected field, which is still an elite position. The bigger shift is under the hood: their Strength of Record dropped from No. 1 to No. 9 after Saturday’s home loss to Wisconsin.
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That’s the kind of single result that can move top-seed math fast, even if your overall profile remains strong.
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3. Iowa: When losses stack up quickly
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Iowa has slid to a potential No. 8 seed projection after back-to-back losses to Minnesota and Illinois, and the résumé is starting to feel thin for a team that’s still viewed as “solid” by most observers.
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They’re 0-3 in Quad 1, which leaves very little high-end proof so far. Their best win is UCLA (No. 35 in TeamRankings), and they don’t have another win against a team ranked better than 70. That’s workable in January, but it becomes a problem fast if the quality wins don’t show up soon.
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4. Kentucky: Which result matters more?
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Kentucky’s home loss to Missouri (77th in the NET) is more damaging than the brownie points they gained in their blowout win over Mississippi State (90th in the NET). That’s the bubble math reality: quality wins help, but avoidable losses can swing your profile even faster, especially when they come at home against mid-tier opponents.
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5. Kansas: How thin is the margin for error?
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Kansas is hanging on right now, and it’s tighter than it looks. A 5-5 record across Quad 1 and Quad 2, plus no bad losses, is enough to keep them on the No. 6 seed line today.
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But there’s not much cushion if they start dropping the wrong games, because the résumé is more “solid” than “secure.” TeamRankings still gives them a 96% chance to make the tournament, but the seed line is telling you the same thing: they need more separation.
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5 Key Situations That Could Swing the Bracket
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1. Missouri Valley: Murray State vs Belmont for the auto bid
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Murray State has a 25% chance at receiving an auto bid this season according to TeamRankings projections, tied with Belmont for the best odds in the Missouri Valley.
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2. AAC: South Florida and Tulsa separating from the pack
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Similarly, South Florida and Tulsa look like the most promising teams in the American, with South Florida holding a slight edge based on predictive metrics.
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3. Florida: Still room for a move?
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The second best team in the SEC this season according to the TeamRankings S-Curve? The Florida Gators. Don’t let those early losses convince you this team isn’t capable of doing remarkable things.
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Interesting to note that while Florida is considered the second best team in the SEC, the S-Curve still has them outside of the top 15, meaning Vanderbilt is the only SEC team with a hypothetical “top 15” chance to cut down the nets in March. Incredible.
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4. Bubble watch: Oklahoma State & Virginia Tech
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The first of two projected ‘first four’ matchups is Oklahoma State vs Virginia Tech. TeamRankings gives both teams a 24% chance of making the tournament, and interestingly is predicting a combined record of 11-18 between both teams over the next two months.
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5. Stanford: A résumé that defies logic
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The Cardinal easily could’ve been included in last week’s confusing teams segment, they don’t make any sense whatsoever.
3-1 in Quad 1, 5-2 in the first two quadrants. That alone usually warrants a No. 5-6 seed at this point in the season, but a Quad 3 loss to Seattle and a Quad 4 loss to UNLV paired with a NET ranking around 75 and a 13% chance of making the tournament on TeamRankings makes it truly impossible to determine how the committee would value this team if the season ended today. |
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The Best Way to Follow College Hoops
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College basketball is noisy. Even if you watch every game, perception and media narratives rarely line up with what the numbers are showing.
This newsletter breaks down the season through the data, highlighting where teams may be stronger or weaker than they appear so you have a clearer view before March. |
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