The Shot That Broke Duke (and Most Brackets)

Published: Mon, 03/30/26

Braylon Mullins Just Made March History
Written by Nick Bateman · Follow on X (@nickbateman33)
Christian Laettner in 1992. Kris Jenkins in 2016. Braylon Mullins in 2026.
Braylon Mullins just sent UConn to the Final Four with a shot that instantly belongs in the sport’s history.
That was not just a buzzer beater.

It was one of the greatest game endings ever, especially given the moment.
And it is also the perfect reminder of something we see every March.

No matter what the numbers say, this tournament always finds a way to break them.
 
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Duke’s Second Half Problem Wasn’t Real, Until It Was
Duke and Jon Scheyer have developed a reputation for blowing second half leads.
  • Blew a 14 point lead vs Houston in the 2025 Final Four

  • Blew a 17 point lead vs Texas Tech in December

  • Blew a 13 point lead vs North Carolina in February

  • Blew a 19 point lead vs UConn with a Final Four on the line, losing on a 38 footer you will see for the rest of your life
But here is the part that does not fit.
According to TeamRankings data, Duke ranked 3rd in the nation in second half scoring margin. UConn ranked 40th.
And in this tournament, Duke looked like the opposite of a team that fades late.
  • Came back from a double digit halftime deficit vs Siena

  • Pulled away late from TCU after a tight 30 minutes

  • Won a grind it out game vs St John’s after trailing at half
Everything pointed to a team that got stronger as games went on.
Until it didn’t.
That is the reminder.

You can have the profile. You can have the data. You can have the trend.

And in March, none of it guarantees anything.
 
Duke Checked Every Box, UConn Didn’t Care
UConn ranked 137th in turnovers per game (11.0). Duke ranked 104th (10.3).
On Sunday, UConn turned it over just 4 times. Duke had 13.
That gap decided the game.
And it was not the only place where the data pointed the other way.
Duke’s predictive rating at TeamRankings sits at 27.1, second in the country. UConn came in at 21.2, ranked 10th.
On paper, this was supposed to be a comfortable Duke win.
And for most of the game, it looked like it would be.
That is what made the ending so jarring.
Because this tournament has actually followed the data more than usual.

Favorites have advanced. Edges have held. The numbers have mostly been right.
Until they weren’t.
That is the tension with March.
You can build the most efficient system. You can optimize every possession. You can model every outcome.

At the end of the day, the ball is still in the hands of a teenager making the biggest decision of his life.

And sometimes, that is the only variable that matters.

Our Final Four preview drops Thursday. Stay tuned.
 
 
 

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