Michigan is the Rightful Favorite, But There's a Catch

Written by Nick Bateman · Follow on X (@nickbateman33)

The line for the game has stayed put all week: Michigan -7.5.

The sharps are in agreement. Michigan is a worthy heavy favorite, and by most measures, one of the most dominant college basketball teams of all time.

TeamRankings suggests the spread should be Michigan -7.7, with Michigan’s predictive rating of 29.1 sitting 7.7 points higher than UConn’s 21.4. In other words, everyone is in agreement across the board.

However, one thing remains true.

You simply cannot count out Dan Hurley and the UConn Huskies in the NCAA tournament.

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The results surface a few clear storylines. Ludvig Aberg is trending up. Rory McIlroy, last year’s champion, may be trending the other direction.

UConn Is a Championship Regular, But Not Like This

It’s worth noting that UConn has NEVER been the lower seeded team in a national championship game, which is ridiculous considering they’ve played in SIX national championships since 1999. Even crazier, they made it as a No. 3 seed in 2011, 7 seed in 2014 and 4 seed in 2023.

2024 - 1 seed UConn over 1 seed Purdue

2023 - 4 seed UConn over 5 seed San Diego State

2014 - 7 seed UConn over 8 seed Kentucky

2011 - 3 seed UConn over 8 seed Butler

2004 - 2 seed UConn over 3 seed Georgia Tech

1999 - 1 seed UConn over 1 seed Duke

To counter that, UConn was a 2.5 point underdog in 2014 and a 9.5 point underdog in 1999, implying the program shouldn’t fear being a 7.5 underdog vs Michigan, but it’s still fascinating that this is the FIRST time that UConn will be a seed-line dog in a national championship game.

Battle for Best Coach in NCAAB: Dusty May vs. Dan Hurley

Some people reading this may roll their eyes at this considering UConn has won two of the last three National Championships, and this is Dusty May’s first time ever coaching in one.

However, let's remind ourselves that Dusty May took over a Michigan team that was coming off an 8-24 season and IMMEDIATELY took them to the Sweet 16, which is further than Dan Hurley and UConn went last year.

Plus, May took Florida Atlantic to the Final Four as a No. 9 seed, which is just about as impressive as it gets.

Hurley Is Still the Standard

Hurley has the better resume, no question, but these coaches are neck and neck in terms of system implementation, game planning, in-game adjustments, culture building, recruiting the right guys, scouting, insane work ethic and above and beyond preparation.

Jon Scheyer of Duke is no slouch as a basketball mind, and many thought his Blue Devils would be playing against Michigan. Instead, Dan Hurley showcased that he's still a step ahead and better all around in so many crucial ways that Scheyer has yet to learn.

Michigan’s Run Has Been Historically Dominant

Michigan hasn’t experienced a hiccup yet this tournament outside of an early deficit to Alabama in the Sweet 16. They’ve won every game by double digits so far and have a point differential of +108 which already puts them on a list of the Top 10 most dominant tournament runs of all time, with a game still to play.

And to anyone that thinks Michigan bought a superteam and is only in the natty because of it, allow me to remind you…

- Elliot Cadeau was a North Carolina castaway with no confidence

- Aday Mara was sitting on the bench at UCLA

- Morez Johnson averaged 7.0 points per game off the bench for Illinois

- Yaxel Lendeborg was playing at UAB

There’s a story behind every player on this team. It’s not like May and his staff went the Kentucky route, buying power conference studs without a single regard for scheme fit or chemistry.

Why This Matchup Seems Inevitable

Back to Michigan’s +108 margin of victory total, ironically the team ranked 1st on this list is 2024 UConn, coached by Dan Hurley, who had a total MOV of +140 which is absolutely ludicrous.

Basically, it’s no surprise UConn and Michigan are in this game.

Where This Game Gets Decided

The one thing that points in favor towards Michigan more than anything is the fact that their losses this season have come against teams that utilize a 5-out offense strategy, with bigs spending a lot of time outside of the paint.

- Wisconsin’s Nolan Winter and Austin Rapp beat Michigan with that in both January and March.

- Duke used Cam Boozer as a point forward at the top of the key which spaced Michigan’s defense out in an uncomfortable way.

- Purdue took advantage of Michigan’s tendency to play in drop coverage on high ball screens, which is always bold against Braden Smith.

- Purdue also out-physicalled Michigan in this game in general, and Michigan’s vulnerability was exposed.

The Problem for UConn

UConn doesn’t have stretch bigs to enact this strategy.

They have Tarris Reed Jr, who is an absolute machine in the paint, but doesn't contribute much outside of that.

Drop coverage will work wonders, so UConn and Hurley will need to get creative.

The Path for UConn

Expect a lot of elevator screens and flare screens for Mullins, Ball and Karaban. Expect a boatload of 3-pointers because of that.

UConn will need to drastically outshoot Michigan in order to win, which is possible. There is a script out there where UConn shoots 15-of-38 from deep and Michigan shoots 6-of-26 (similar to Illinois vs. UConn on Saturday).

UConn is incredible at keeping teams off of the 3 point line with a hedge-help defensive scheme, ranking in the 86th percentile in percentage of opponent’s points coming from 3 point range on TeamRankings (27.4%).

The Hidden Factor: Pressure

Michigan could struggle to score in the half court, it’s entirely possible, but again we’re talking about one of the most explosive teams in the history of college basketball here.

UConn also benefited from the fact that Illinois ranked last (365th) on TeamRankings in turnovers forced per game. The lack of ball pressure is EXACTLY what UConn needs in order to function at a high level offensively. They had ZERO turnovers with three minutes left in the first half on Saturday against Illinois.

UConn won’t be comfortable against Michigan, and that may be the main reason why I think Michigan wins. They have the size and defensive ambiguity to overwhelm UConn’s offense in a way that Illinois didn’t.

Prediction: Michigan Wins

I expect Michigan to win this game for the reasons outlined above.

While it's tough to bet against Dan Hurley as a 7.5 point underdog in the NCAA tournament, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Michigan won comfortably.

I just also wouldn’t be shocked if UConn somehow wins this game and Dan Hurley permanently enters GOAT talks. We’ll have to wait and see!

College basketball is noisy. Even if you watch every game, perception and media narratives rarely line up with what the numbers are showing.

This newsletter breaks down the season through the data, highlighting where teams may be stronger or weaker than they appear so you have a clearer view before March.