5 Games to Watch This Weekend (Jan. 23 to 25)

These aren’t just ranked matchups. Each game below carries real implications for conference races, seed lines, and bubble math as February starts to creep into the picture.

1) #6 Houston @ #12 Texas Tech

Saturday at 6:30 PM ET (ESPN)

Big 12 dominance meets its toughest road test.

• Houston is 39-4 in regular season Big 12 play since joining the conference in 2023.
• The Cougars are 5-0 in conference this season.
• Texas Tech sits at 5-1 and gets Houston at home.
• This is one of the few remaining chances to challenge Houston’s grip on the league.
• A Red Raider win would reshape the Big 12 title conversation.

2) #11 Illinois @ #4 Purdue

Saturday at 3:00 PM ET (FOX)

A potential contender separator at Mackey Arena.

• Both teams enter 7-1 in conference play.
• Purdue is coming off a narrow road loss to UCLA.
• Illinois has a chance to secure a Q1A road win in one of the toughest venues in the country.
• A win would elevate the Illini into the sport’s top-tier contender conversation.
• Purdue looks to reassert control in the Big Ten race.

3) Villanova @ #2 UConn

Saturday at 12:30 PM ET (FOX)

Bubble hope versus Big East certainty.

• UConn is the only Big East team with better than a 99% chance to make the tournament.
• Villanova sits just outside that level of security.
• A road win would dramatically strengthen Villanova’s résumé.
• This is one of the Wildcats’ biggest remaining opportunities.
• For UConn, it’s another chance to protect a top seed.

4) TCU @ Baylor

Saturday at 6:30 PM ET (ESPN2)

January desperation in the Big 12.

• Both teams are trending toward the wrong side of the bubble.
• Neither can afford to give ground in conference play.
• This game feels closer to March than January.
• The winner buys breathing room.
• The loser faces an uphill climb that only gets steeper.

5) Cal @ Stanford

Saturday at 8:00 PM ET (ACCN)

A classic rivalry with modern bubble stakes.

• Both teams have exceeded preseason expectations.
• Each is firmly planted on the bubble.
• This matchup could serve as a résumé pivot point.
• Similar to TCU–Baylor, the loser faces long odds moving forward.
• A win keeps realistic tournament dreams alive.

Can Florida Repeat as Champs? Momentum Is Building

Through the first two months of the season, from November 3rd to January 5th, Florida didn’t look like a team capable of defending a national championship.

According to Bart Torvik data, there were 20 teams playing better basketball overall and 43 offenses operating more efficiently than the Gators.

At that point, Florida was 9-5 with a disappointing 1-4 record in Quad 1 games. A road loss to Missouri to open conference play only amplified the concern. The résumé was thin, the offense felt stagnant, and Florida looked more like a protected seed than a true SEC title threat.

Then something changed.

In the five games since that Missouri loss, Florida has outscored opponents by 78 points, gone 5–0 against the spread, and picked up four Quad 1 wins. The Gators didn’t just start winning, they started dominating.

The metrics followed quickly. Florida ranked 33rd in the first NET release back on December 1st. Today, TeamRankings gives them a 51.8% chance to win the SEC regular season title.

The Efficiency Jump Is Real

Over the past 17 days, Florida has operated as the second most efficient team in the country. Early in the season, their offensive efficiency hovered around 118 adjusted points per 100 possessions: solid, but far from elite.

Since their fifth loss in early January, that number has skyrocketed past 132. According to Torvik, only two teams have reached that mark over this span: Florida and Wisconsin. During the season’s first two months, only one team accomplished that feat: Alabama.

TeamRankings’ “Last 5” metric goes even further, suggesting Florida has actually been the best team in the country during this stretch.

The Lineup Adjustment That Changed Everything

In Florida’s five losses, their worst lineup combination was Urban Klavzar, Xaivian Lee, Thomas Haugh, Rueben Chinyelu, and Alex Condon. That group logged 33 possessions together across those losses.

The results were disastrous. That lineup posted a net rating of -64.4 according to CBB Analytics, placing it in the 2nd percentile nationally: meaning 98% of all Division I lineups were more efficient.

While 33 possessions may not sound like much, the damage was severe. For a high-major team (let alone the defending national champions) it was shockingly bad.

During Florida’s last five games, that exact lineup has played zero possessions. Zero. Todd Golden and his staff identified the problem and removed it entirely.

Even more telling, Urban Klavzar and Xaivian Lee have shared the floor for just 14 total minutes during this stretch. When Klavzar enters, Lee exits. When Lee returns, Klavzar sits. A small, chemistry-driven adjustment unlocked a massive offensive shift.

The Data Still Points Forward

Even with the surge, the lineup data suggests Florida hasn’t fully leaned into its most dominant combinations yet.

Over the past five games, Florida has six qualified lineup combinations. Two carry net ratings above +50. Four sit below +30, including one lineup barely registering a +10.3 advantage. That's just the 58th percentile nationally.

That lineup happens to be Florida’s starting five: Xaivian Lee, Boogie Fland, Thomas Haugh, Rueben Chinyelu, and Alex Condon.

The consistent separator in Florida’s most dominant groups is clear. It's when Urban Klavzar is on the floor, and Xaivian Lee is not.

Rueben Chinyelu’s Quiet Rise

Another important trend has emerged during conference play. On TeamRankings, Rueben Chinyelu ranks 183rd nationally in season-long Game Score. In conference play alone, he jumps to 84th, just ahead of teammate Thomas Haugh.

Chinyelu has been the catalyst behind Florida ranking first nationally during conference play in one of the sport’s most important metrics: Team Rebounds and Turnovers Forced minus Opponent Rebounds and Opponent Turnovers Forced.

Florida will look to continue this dominant stretch on Saturday against Auburn at 4:00 PM ET.

College basketball is noisy. Even if you watch every game, perception and media narratives rarely line up with what the numbers are showing.

This newsletter breaks down the season through the data, highlighting where teams may be stronger or weaker than they appear so you have a clearer view before March.