5 Games to Watch This Weekend (Jan. 30-Feb. 1)

These aren’t just ranked matchups. Every game below carries real implications for conference races, bracket positioning, and how the top of the field is starting to take shape.

1) No. 3 Michigan @ No. 7 Michigan State

Friday at 8:00 PM ET (FOX)

First place in the Big Ten with a rivalry twist.

• Both teams narrowly avoided a second conference loss on Tuesday.
• Both teams ranked inside the top seven is a rare setup here.
• First place in the Big Ten is directly on the line.
• Expect tourney-level intensity in East Lansing.

2) No. 13 BYU @ No. 14 Kansas

Saturday at 4:30 PM ET (ESPN)

A second-half showdown waiting to happen.

• BYU nearly erased an 11-point deficit in the final minute at Arizona on Monday.
• The Cougars rank 1st nationally in second-half NET efficiency.
• Kansas has won four straight and is peaking at the right time.
• BYU continues to defy late-game expectations.
• This one is going to be interesting, especially down the stretch of the final 10 minutes.

3) Saint Mary’s @ No. 6 Gonzaga

Saturday at 10:30 PM ET (ESPN)

Conference control versus résumé survival.

• Saint Mary’s has won the WCC regular season outright the past two years.
• Gonzaga can create a two-game conference cushion with a win.
• Saint Mary’s still lacks a Quad 1 win despite tournament projections.
• The committee historically penalizes teams without Quad 1 victories.
• This is one of Saint Mary’s best remaining résumé opportunity.

4) No. 23 Alabama @ No. 19 Florida

Sunday at 1:00 PM ET (ABC)

Momentum meets volatility in the SEC.

• Rare Sunday afternoon SEC showcase on ABC.
• Alabama enters amid off-court uncertainty.
• Florida has surged after major lineup adjustments.
• The Gators look far closer to last year’s championship form.
• This game tests whether Florida’s efficiency spike holds.

5) No. 9 Illinois @ No. 5 Nebraska

Sunday at 4:00 PM ET (FS1)

A top-10 Sunday matchup with real substance.

• Illinois and Nebraska are a combined 12–4 against Quad 1 opponents.
• Nebraska remains unbeaten and highly efficient.
• Illinois continues to climb after Keaton Wagler’s breakout.
• This matchup has major top-four seed implications.
• Keep an eye on Nebraska center Rienk Mast, who missed Tuesday's game with an illness.

Top 10 Coach of the Year Candidates in 2026

Coach of the Year is about expectation versus reality. These coaches have created the largest gaps between the two, according to preseason projections, conference context, and TeamRankings data.

1. Fred Hoiberg, Nebraska

Picked 14th in the preseason Big Ten poll, Nebraska now sits firmly in the conference title race. This is the clearest preseason-to-reality leap in the country and makes Hoiberg the current frontrunner.

2. Mark Byington, Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt was projected 11th in the SEC. TeamRankings now gives the Commodores an 11.4% chance to win the regular season and an 18.3% chance to win the SEC Tournament. A title run would force Byington into the national conversation.

3. Tom Izzo, Michigan State

Picked sixth in the Big Ten, Michigan State is again outperforming expectations. The Spartans are 19–2 and 9–1 in conference play despite ranking 243rd nationally in three-point shooting. Izzo keeps winning without relying on modern offensive trends.

4. Ryan Odom, Virginia

Virginia entered the season as a high-variance bubble team. They now project as a consensus top-four seed while averaging 84.6 points per game and ranking fifth nationally in blocks. The identity shift has been dramatic.

5. Travis Steele, Miami (OH)

Miami remains unbeaten and ranks first nationally in effective field goal percentage at 60.3%. TeamRankings favors the RedHawks in all 10 remaining games, with an undefeated run still firmly on the table.

6. Johnny Dawkins, UCF

Picked 14th in the Big 12 preseason poll, UCF already sits closer to the conference’s top tier than the middle. The Knights reached their projected win total with 10 games still to play.

7. Kevin Willard, Villanova

After heavy skepticism following his move from Maryland, Willard has Villanova tracking toward a single-digit NCAA seed. The Wildcats were picked seventh in the Big East and have outperformed every preseason expectation.

8. Eric Konkol, Tulsa

Tulsa jumped from 245th to 71st in TeamRankings predictive rating year over year. Picked eighth in the AAC, the Golden Hurricane are now projected to finish 13–5 in conference play.

9. Brad Brownell, Clemson

Clemson was picked seventh in the ACC and now sits second, one loss behind Duke. This marks the fourth straight season Brownell has significantly outperformed his preseason placement.

10. Dusty May (Michigan) & Tommy Lloyd (Arizona)

Both programs entered with high expectations and have exceeded them anyway. Michigan and Arizona rank top three nationally in TeamRankings predictive metrics, validating elite roster construction through both recruiting and the transfer portal.

College basketball is noisy. Even if you watch every game, perception and media narratives rarely line up with what the numbers are showing.

This newsletter breaks down the season through the data, highlighting where teams may be stronger or weaker than they appear so you have a clearer view before March.