Bracket Check: Who’s Up? Who’s Down? (Feb. 2)

Last week caused more reshuffling of teams, and we'll note which ones are trending up and down below.

Michigan separated from the pack with top-tier wins. Florida and Indiana forced their way up multiple lines with dominant statements. Meanwhile, teams like Butler, Miami, and Alabama lost the little margin they had left.

Here’s what actually changed, and why it matters as things tighten while inching closer to March.

5 Risers: Teams Trending in the Right Direction

1. Michigan separates from the pack

It is difficult to rise when you already sit on the one seed line, but Michigan did more than hold serve.

The Wolverines beat top five Nebraska at home and top 10 Michigan State on the road, delivering one of the strongest single weeks any team has had this season and reinforcing real separation at the top of the bracket.

2. Florida’s turnaround is no longer theoretical

A 47 point road blowout of South Carolina followed by a 23 point dismantling of Alabama pushed Florida’s projected seed on TeamRankings from a 5 to a 4, the largest jump of any team this week.

Florida scored 72 points in the paint against Alabama, the first SEC team to do so against a Power Five opponent in more than 20 years.

3. Indiana plays its way off the bubble

Indiana entered the week barely clinging to relevance, with zero Quad 1 wins and a 1-7 record against Quad 1 and 2 teams combined.

Wins over Purdue and UCLA recalibrated the entire profile. Indiana now projects safely in the field with room to absorb a mistake or two.

4. Belmont flips the Missouri Valley race

Just ten days ago, Murray State was the projected Missouri Valley favorite.

Belmont changed that decisively with a 103-86 rout on Saturday night. TeamRankings now gives Belmont a 78.4% chance to win the regular season title.

5. Tennessee quietly climbs a seed line

Since a 24 point loss to Florida on January 10, Tennessee has won four of five games.

Even with two overtime wins in that stretch, the improved consistency moved Tennessee’s projected seed from a 6 to a consensus 5 seed at this point in time.

5 Fallers: Teams Trending Down Over the Last Week

1. Michigan State slips out of two seed range

Michigan State escaped Rutgers with a Quad 3 road win despite trailing for nearly the entire game.

That narrow escape was followed by a home loss to Michigan, a combination that nudged the Spartans out of two seed consideration for now. Let's see how Sparty responds.

2. Butler misses a big opportunity

Butler had a chance to change its narrative with a road game at St John’s. Instead, it was overwhelmed.

Any chance to stabilize disappeared two days later with a 13 point home loss to Georgetown, leaving tournament hopes hanging by a thread.

3. Miami loses ground it could not afford to lose

Miami’s best wins remain road victories over teams unlikely to reach the tournament.

A one point home loss to California dropped Miami’s tournament odds from 36 percent to 20 percent, the second largest decline of the week on TeamRankings.

4. Nebraska’s one seed path narrows

Losses to Michigan and Illinois cut Nebraska’s one seed odds from 18.7 percent to 4.9 percent.

The Huskers were winning most of the game at Michigan despite not having top player, Rienk Mast, who was dealing with the flu. Nebraska has proved they belong near the top, but premium opportunities slipped away this week.

5. Alabama’s problems remain unsolved

Alabama lost two of three games this week, including a 23 point defeat at Florida.

Despite a midseason roster addition, rebounding and interior defense remain unresolved, and the overall trajectory is trending the wrong direction.

This Potential Loophole Could Change College Basketball

Former UCLA guard Amari Bailey announced Friday that he is attempting to return to college basketball after being drafted, signing an NBA contract, and appearing in more than 10 NBA games.

Under current rules, this should not be possible. If a legal workaround succeeds, it would fundamentally alter roster construction, player valuation, and competitive balance across the sport.

This is not a one player issue. If this eligibility line moves, the consequences would extend far beyond this season.

College basketball is noisy. Even if you watch every game, perception and media narratives rarely line up with what the numbers are showing.

This newsletter breaks down the season through the data, highlighting where teams may be stronger or weaker than they appear so you have a clearer view before March.