🏀 Kansas Is Winning, But Something Doesn’t Quite Add Up

Published: Thu, 02/05/26

Updated: Thu, 02/05/26

5 Games to Watch This Weekend (Feb 6 - Feb 8)

This is a huge weekend for conference play, especially near the top.

It starts Friday night with a Big East showdown and runs all the way through late Saturday with games that could shape the SEC and Big 12 races.

#3 UConn @ #22 St John’s

WHEN: Friday at 8:00 PM ET on FOX

Battle for the Big East, Part 1.

• UConn is 12-0 in conference play, St John’s is 10-1.

• The Huskies are coming off back-to-back 25+ point wins over Creighton and Xavier.

• St. John's has won eight straight, but this will likely be its toughest test of the season so far.

#4 Duke @ #14 North Carolina

WHEN: Saturday at 6:30 PM ET on ESPN

First installment of the greatest rivalry in college basketball.

• This will be the 88th meeting in which both teams are ranked in the Top 25, the next highest is 41.

• North Carolina has won 44 of said games, Duke has won 43.

• North Carolina has averaged 77.9 points in said games, Duke has averaged 77.4.

#5 Illinois @ #10 Michigan State

WHEN: Saturday at 8:00 PM ET on FOX

Michigan State really needs this one.

• Michigan State is coming off of a road loss to Minnesota, a home loss to Michigan and a narrow escape vs Rutgers early last week.

• Illinois is coming off of a 40 point stomping of Northwestern and a road win over Nebraska on February 1st.

• The Spartans need to turn things around quickly.

#17 Florida @ Texas A&M

WHEN: Saturday at 8:30 PM ET on SECN

Battle for 1st place in the SEC.

• Both teams are tied for 1st in the SEC at 7-2 currently.

• The game is in College Station so the crowd should be off the charts.

• Texas A&M slipped at Alabama on Wed, but this is a huge chance to bounce back.

#8 Houston @ #16 BYU

WHEN: Saturday at 10:30 PM ET on ESPN

BYU needs to stop the slide.

• Similar to Illinois vs Michigan State, the home team could really use a win.

• BYU has lost 4 of their last 5 since starting 16-1, including a 7 point loss @ Oklahoma State on Wed in which their defense allowed 99 points.

• Houston has won 3 in a row and is 8-1 in Big 12 play, looking to continue their dominance of this league since joining back in 2023.

Kansas Is Winning, But the Darryn Peterson Numbers Are Complicated

Late Monday night, Kansas found themselves down 61-56 on the road vs. Texas Tech with 2 minutes left. Darryn Peterson, through 38 minutes, was 3-of-12 from the field, 1-of-7 from deep with only 13 points.

At that time, curiosity struck me: What do the numbers say about Peterson's contributions? With the help of TeamRankings and CBB Analytics, I found some interesting splits on Kansas' efficiency with Peterson on/off the floor.

And just as I was researching those numbers, Peterson hit two unbelievable, clutch three-pointers to steal a road win for his team in true superstar fashion.

So even though he was dubbed a hero in the headlines, the broader numbers tell a much more complicated story.

Top 10 Lineups in Conference Play

Below is a chart from cbbanalytics.com showcasing the top 10 lineup combinations in college basketball during conference play, based on adjusted overall NET efficiency.

Top 10 five-man lineups during conference play

Kansas has a lineup featured in this Top 10, yet superstar Darryn Peterson is not in it. Interesting.

Kansas’ Best Lineup = No Peterson?

The lineup of Elmarko Jackson, Melvin Council Jr, Jamari McDowell, Tre White and Flory Bidunga has an overall NET rating of +41.9 across 36 minutes of play.

They score 145.9 points per 100 possessions and allow just 103.9.

What About Kansas’ Main Starting Lineup?

Kansas’ main starting lineup featuring Council, White, Peterson, Tiller and Bidunga gets most of the minutes when all five are healthy, as Kansas doesn’t dive deep into their bench much.

This lineup is efficient, which makes sense given Kansas is 17-5 (7-2) and ranked 11th in the AP Poll, but from a statistical standpoint it’s not their most effective lineup.

However, a difference between a lineup in the 91st percentile and 74th percentile with sample sizes restricted to conference play only isn’t drastic enough to draw major conclusions, especially when both lineups are clearly productive.

However, when looking at Kansas’ LEAST efficient lineup (minimum 30 minutes played), the margins pop off the screen in a way that cannot be ignored.

Elmarko Jackson, Melvin Council Jr, Darryn Peterson, Tre White and Flory Bidunga have a NET rating in the 25th percentile and are scoring just 78.5 points per 100 possessions, which places them in the 4th percentile.

TeamRankings Data Tells a Similar Story

Team Rankings backs up this data, especially when comparing Darryn Peterson to fellow highly touted NBA Draft prospects.

Based on ‘Win Score’ rankings at Teamrankings.com, Cameron Boozer ranks 1st in the nation, Caleb Wilson is 3rd, yet Peterson is nowhere to be seen.

Pivot the data set to ‘Game Score’, and you find (among freshmen):

#1 - Cameron Boozer

#2 - Caleb Wilson

#3 - AJ Dybantsa

#18 - Darius Acuff

#27 - Darryn Peterson

#29 - Keaton Wagler

Peterson’s Stats Don’t Match Lineup Impact

Peterson’s production is remarkable, he’s averaging 21 points and 4 rebounds, shooting 49% from the field and 43% from deep, yet his output doesn't fully correlate with team success as much as other prospects.

Is this a cause for concern in the context of Peterson’s ability to thrive in the NBA? Probably not, as Peterson is obviously a superhuman talent. The fact that there’s something not fully clicking yet within the Jayhawks roster efficiency is telling of many things, but it’s mostly just an interesting note.

This Has Happened with Similar Prospects

We’ve seen this in the past with college talents that are almost “too good” for college basketball.

• Ben Simmons wasn’t able to will LSU to the tournament in 2016.

• Trae Young put up outstanding numbers at Oklahoma, yet his team snuck into the tournament as a 10 seed and lost in the first round.

• Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey, two top 5 picks, couldn’t even sniff a tournament berth for Rutgers last year.

None of the aforementioned names were featured on Teamrankings ‘Win Score’ season long leaderboard. That's mostly because if you put up big numbers but the team isn’t winning, the stats aren’t truly correlated to team success.

The Best Way to Follow College Hoops

College basketball is noisy. Even if you watch every game, perception and media narratives rarely line up with what the numbers are showing.

This newsletter breaks down the season through the data, highlighting where teams may be stronger or weaker than they appear so you have a clearer view before March.

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