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Bracket Check: Who's Up? Who's Down? (Feb. 10)
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The margins keep shrinking, and last week proved how fast things can flip.
- Missouri jumped from the "First 8 Out" straight into play-in range.
- New Mexico cratered with back-to-back home losses that torched their resume.
- Gonzaga got embarrassed by a winless-in-quality-games Portland squad and dropped two seed lines overnight.
Here's who's climbing, who's falling, and what chaos is brewing just beneath the surface. |
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5 Risers: Teams Trending in the Right Direction
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1. Missouri Forces Its Way Into the Conversation
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A week ago, Missouri was firmly in the "First 8 Out." Now they're a probable play-in team after going 2-0 and climbing 19.2% in tournament odds to 35.6%.
The Tigers aren't safe yet, but they've bought themselves margin they didn't have before. Wednesday's game at Texas A&M will be big. |
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2. USC Builds One of the Strongest Resumes on the Bubble
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USC now sits at 8-1 in Quadrant 2 games, one of the best marks in the country after picking up wins over Indiana and Penn State last week.
That consistency in winnable games pushed their tournament odds up 15.6% to 52.1%. The resume isn't flashy, but it's hard to poke holes in. |
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3. Texas Survives the Gauntlet
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After opening SEC play with a Quad 3 home game against Mississippi State, Texas played six Quad 1 games and two Quad 2 games in an eight-game stretch.
They went 4-4, then followed it up with dominant Quad 3 wins over South Carolina and Ole Miss. That resilience bumped their odds 10.5% to 60.0%. |
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4. VCU Positions Itself for a Potential At-Large Bid
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Saint Louis is the class of the Atlantic 10, but VCU and George Mason are right behind. VCU has won seven straight games, and their only loss outside of Quad 1 is a three-point home defeat to New Mexico.
A two-bid A-10 is no longer theoretical. VCU's odds jumped 10.3% to 47.5%, and they're positioning themselves as a legitimate at-large candidate. |
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5. Georgia Gets the Committee's Attention
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From a seeding standpoint, Georgia still hovers around the 8-9 line, which some consider bubble territory.
But a convincing Quad 1 road win over LSU moved the needle with predictive metrics. Their odds rose 9.4% to 94.3%, and they're trending toward safety. |
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Best College Basketball Bets (Updated Daily)
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Each day, we break down the best NCAA basketball bets using our models and data-backed analysis, highlighting where the market is mispriced and where the edge actually lives.
No guesswork. Just clear, actionable insight you can use before tip-off.
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5 Fallers: Teams Trending in the Wrong Direction
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1. New Mexico Craters at the Worst Possible Time
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A 33% drop at this stage of the season is unheard of, but that's exactly what happened to New Mexico after a 20-point home loss to Utah State followed by a crushing one-point home loss to Boise State.
The Lobos' tournament odds fell 33.5% down to 27.2%. What looked like a safe resume two weeks ago is now hanging by a thread. |
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2. Texas A&M's Defense Doesn't Translate to Metrics
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Texas A&M's odds dropped 16.4% down to 55%, and it's clear TeamRankings' predictive data is not fond of Bucky Ball.
The grind-it-out style might win games, but the metrics aren't buying it as tournament-worthy yet. |
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3. UCF Gets Smoked Twice in Four Days
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UCF got destroyed by Houston on Wednesday and destroyed by Cincinnati on Sunday. Their odds fell 12.9% down to 81.5%.
The good news? The remainder of UCF's Big 12 schedule is about as easy as it gets: WVU and TCU at home, at Utah, at a struggling BYU team, Baylor and Oklahoma State at home, then WVU on the road. |
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4. Gonzaga Loses a 2-Seed in One Night
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Gonzaga's tournament odds didn't change on TeamRankings—they've all but locked up a spot already.
But a loss to 204th-ranked Portland was enough to move Gonzaga from a borderline 2-seed to a 4-seed at best. Portland was 0-9 in Q1+Q2 games before beating the then-6th-ranked Zags. |
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5. Jon Scheyer's Late-Game Struggles Become a Pattern
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Not only did Jon Scheyer lose public favor by joining the anti-court-storming movement that's been frontlined by Duke graduates for years (see: Jay Bilas).
But he also choked another late lead, which has people wondering if he can handle the pressure of late-game situations well enough to coach a team to a national championship. The Houston Final Four collapse in 2025 still lingers. |
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5 Things to Keep an Eye On
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1. Miami (OH) Could Force the Committee's Hand
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We're keeping our eye on Miami (OH) for the rest of the season, win or lose.
TeamRankings has Akron rated as the best team in the MAC, and is currently projecting Miami (OH) to miss the tournament at 29-2. If that happens, it would be one of the most controversial decisions we've ever seen. |
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2. The Mountain West Inches Toward a One-Bid League
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Not much has changed with the Mountain West's tournament hopes this season. New Mexico and San Diego State are still firmly on the bubble.
We're inching closer and closer to a one-bid MWC, which would be a massive blow to a conference that's used to multiple bids. |
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3. Santa Clara Opens the Door for a Three or Four-Bid WCC
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The 45th-best team according to TeamRankings is officially in sole possession of first place in the WCC.
We're looking out for the potential of a three-bid WCC, possibly even a four-bid WCC if every domino falls perfectly. |
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4. Boise State's Metrics Say They're Better Than Their Record
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Surely Boise State's loss to D2 Hawaii Pacific at home back in November, paired with a Q3 loss to UNLV, 70th in SOR, 74th in BPI, and a lackluster 14-9 record in the MWC means they will not be making the 2026 March Madness tournament.
But TeamRankings thinks they have slightly better than a 1-in-3 chance still. The predictive metrics think Boise State might be a sleeping giant ready to erupt. |
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5. NJIT Would Be a Historic Underdog
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Ranked 306th in the NET, 310th on KenPom with a 57-point loss to Louisville and a 49-point loss to Butler, NJIT finds themselves in sole possession of first place in the America East.
If they manage to make the tournament, they would be one of the biggest underdogs in March Madness history, with mygamesim.com estimating the spread would be Arizona -36. |
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The Best Way to Follow College Hoops
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College basketball is noisy. Even if you watch every game, perception and media narratives rarely line up with what the numbers are showing.
This newsletter breaks down the season through the data, highlighting where teams may be stronger or weaker than they appear so you have a clearer view before March. |
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