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The Race to Selection Sunday Is On
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This season has been truly remarkable. It feels like every single big game between two contending teams has delivered the goods.
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Big Games Galore
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Every night, college basketball fans are being treated to a level of excellence that is somehow beyond what this sport has promised in the past.
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Texas Tech traveled to Arizona and knocked off the #1 ranked Wildcats.
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Kansas did the same earlier in the week in a game that was equally as incredible.
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Miami Ohio is the last undefeated team in the country after ranking 121st in TeamRankings’ preseason predictive metric.
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Endless Drama & Storylines
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We’ve been blessed with the best freshman class arguably ever.
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We have an on-court “villain” again in Jeremy Fears, who’s bordering Grayson Allen territory on the best trippers in college basketball list.
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We have multiple off-court “villains” in Darryn Peterson, Charles Bediako & Nate Oats, Amari Bailey and any other G-Leaguer attempting to return to college basketball.
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The animosity between coaches and other coaches is rising (see Todd Golden & Nate Oats).
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The animosity between coaches and their own players is rising (see any Mick Cronin post game press conference).
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Just all around, there’s not much missing from this season. It’s been about as close to perfect as it gets.
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One Month Until Selection Sunday
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We’re officially less than four weeks away from Selection Sunday, but let’s all make sure we remember how fast these next two months tend to fly by.
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Before we know it, it'll be early April, we’ll have a national champion, and we’ll be staring down 7 long grueling months without college basketball.
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So soak it all in. Remember to be conscious that you are existing on this earth during the best 6 week stretch in all of sports, right now, as we speak.
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And while the emotion is high, the numbers are moving just as fast.
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With that being said, here are your five biggest risers from this past week in college hoops.
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5 Risers: Teams Trending in the Right Direction
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Last week’s risers: Missouri, USC, Texas, VCU, Georgia
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1. Miami Locks In With Its Back Against the Wall
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Miami entered this past week as either one of the last teams in or first teams out in every bracketology projection in America. They had yet to pick up a Quad 1-A win (top half of Quad 1), and had just lost to Cal at home.
Backs against the wall, Jai Lucas’ team locked in and picked up a convincing 9 point win over North Carolina, then followed it up with a Quad 1-A victory over NC State on the road.
TeamRankings analytics improved their odds of making the NCAA tournament by a whopping 33.8% up to 56.2% overall. |
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2. Seton Hall Reclaims Its Spot in the Big East Hierarchy
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Seton Hall is TeamRankings’ second biggest riser in NCAA tournament odds, rising 15.5% up to 30.3% overall.
The Pirates went 2-0 this past week and have firmly re-established themselves as the Big East’s 4th best team. |
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3. Wisconsin Adds Two of the Best Wins in the Country
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What a week for the Badgers.
Beating Michigan on the road back in January held the title of best win in the country for a long time, but outside of that Wisconsin didn’t have resume metrics worth writing home about… until now.
On Tuesday, Wisconsin traveled into Champaign and beat Illinois on the road in overtime, arguably the 2nd best win of the college basketball season. They followed that up with a dominant 21 point home victory over then 10th ranked Michigan State.
TeamRankings now has Wisconsin as a 100% lock to make the tournament, a 7.3% rise from last Monday. |
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4. South Florida Takes Control of the AAC
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South Florida has taken complete control over the AAC after three straight Quad 2 wins over Tulsa, Wichita State & FAU.
Tulsa’s recent three game losing skid has given USF a two game lead over the field in the American. With a NET of 57 and a 6-5 record against the first 2 quadrants, it’s not impossible for USF to receive an at-large bid. |
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5. Gonzaga Regains Control of the WCC
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Lastly, Gonzaga bounced back from a rough loss last week to Portland by destroying Washington State and beating Santa Clara on the road.
That stretch allowed them to regain 1st place in the WCC standings and public favor among pundits and CBB fans that were beginning to write them off. |
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NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions: Who's In? Who's Out?
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Jason Lisk unveils his first projected 2026 NCAA Tournament Bracket. Track who’s in, who’s out, and where teams stand as updates roll in over the next month.
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5 Fallers: Teams Trending in the Wrong Direction
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Last week’s fallers: New Mexico, Texas A&M, UCF, Gonzaga, Jon Scheyer
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1. Texas A&M’s Sudden Slide
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Yes, Texas A&M is topping the fallers list for a second straight week.
Two weeks ago, the Aggies were in first place in the SEC at 7-1. Bucky McMillan was getting Coach of the Year praise, and fans were starting to feel like lock status was only a win or two away.
Then came losses to Alabama, Florida, Missouri at home, and Vanderbilt in a 10 day stretch that flipped the season on its head.
Texas A&M saw a 24.3% decline in their tournament odds and now sit at just 30.7%, a harsh reality for a team that looked secure not long ago. |
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2. Iowa Misses Its Opportunity
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Losing to Maryland (151st in the NET) on Wednesday was dreadful, but Iowa had the perfect chance to recover with Purdue coming into Iowa City on Saturday.
It was a genuinely enormous game. The public was still trying to figure out whether Iowa was a contender or pretender, and the opportunity to strengthen a Quad 1 record that features just two wins this season was paramount.
Purdue beat Iowa 78-57. |
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3. Troy Loses Its Grip on the Sun Belt
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America’s most unpredictable team just hit a rough patch.
Troy lost to Texas State on Wednesday and Southern Miss on Saturday and now finds itself alone in 3rd place in the Sun Belt heading into the home stretch.
Troy had a 40.3% chance of getting the auto bid a week ago on TeamRankings, but that percentage fell to 33.5%, costing them favorite status and placing them in a tight title race against Appalachian State and South Alabama. |
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4. Oklahoma State’s Path Narrows Quickly
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Similarly to Miami last week, Oklahoma State was viewed as either one of the last teams in or first teams out heading into this stretch.
TeamRankings never viewed Oklahoma State as true tournament quality to begin with, giving them just a 10% chance of earning a bid entering the week. That number is now 2.5% after losses to Arizona State and TCU, dropping the Cowboys to 16-9 overall and 4-8 in conference play.
That 2.5% suggests the only realistic paths now are winning out or capturing the Big 12 tournament.
Winning out would require beating Kansas and Houston. The good news for OSU is both games are in Stillwater. |
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5. Clemson’s Resume Still Has a Hole
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Clemson is enough of a lock that an 0-2 week didn’t move their TeamRankings projections much.
But the Tigers had a chance to finish the week 12-1 and in sole possession of first place in the ACC had they knocked off Virginia Tech at home and Duke on the road.
Instead, Clemson remains one of a handful of “tournament locks” without a Quad 1-A win. That could result in a seed worse than their resume metrics suggest, similar to Louisville in 2025.
Only two opportunities remain: at home vs Louisville on the 28th and at North Carolina on March 3rd. |
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5 Potential Bid Stealers
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To qualify as a “bid stealer,” a team must be safely out of at-large consideration but playing top 50 quality hoops over the past three weeks, signaling a change in capability that could fuel a late season run.
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TeamRankings data is not projecting any of these teams to actually pull this off.
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1. Oklahoma’s Offensive Surge Changes the Ceiling
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Oklahoma is the 26th most efficient team in the country over the past three weeks, with an offensive efficiency ranked 2nd nationally behind only Illinois.
If the Sooners can generate even a modest defensive boost in March, they become a much tougher out than they’ve been for most of the season. |
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2. Florida State Has Become the ACC’s “League Ruiner”
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Florida State was so poor for so long that they still remain a Quad 3 opponent for teams hosting them in ACC play.
Yet since January 26th, they rank 28th nationally in adjusted NET efficiency.
Virginia Tech and Miami were both casualties of this turnaround, picking up home Quad 3 losses that look far worse on paper than they actually were. Miami rebounded. Virginia Tech may not recover and will be rooting for Florida State to climb into the NET Top 75. |
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3. Cincinnati’s Turnaround Is Real, Even If the Resume Isn’t
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Cincinnati ranks 29th in overall NET efficiency over the past three weeks.
But at 14-12, with multiple unforgivable losses including Eastern Michigan at home, the Bearcats dug themselves a deep hole.
There was a stretch this season where their at-large chances were nearly nonexistent. That number has improved, proving the turnaround is legitimate. With favorable seeding in the Big 12 tournament, Cincinnati has the profile of a team capable of surprising people. |
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4. Georgetown Is Playing Like a Different Team
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Ed Cooley & co lost Vincent Iwuchukwu for a large portion of the season after knocking off Clemson in November. The Hoyas spiraled and now sit firmly out of at-large consideration.
However, over the past 3 weeks, Georgetown ranks 36th nationally in NET efficiency and has looked capable of competing with anyone.
They had won 4 straight before losses to Villanova and UConn, and they took UConn to the wire on the road. A miraculous Big East tournament run is not out of the question. |
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5. Ohio State’s Metrics vs Resume Dilemma
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Ohio State cannot seem to win a Quad 1 game, currently sitting at 0-8 against Q1 opponents. That reality alone could keep them out of the NCAA tournament regardless of what other metrics say.
But this is clearly a capable team. The Buckeyes have lost by single digits to Illinois, North Carolina, Nebraska and Virginia and rank 38th nationally in efficiency over the past three weeks.
TeamRankings projections view Ohio State more favorably than the resume suggests, as the model does not weigh Quadrant wins the same way the committee does.
For practical purposes, Ohio State feels like a true coin flip. If they enter conference tournament play on the wrong side of that bubble, they immediately become one of the most dangerous potential bid stealers in the field. |
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The Best Way to Follow College Hoops
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College basketball is noisy. Even if you watch every game, perception and media narratives rarely line up with what the numbers are showing.
This newsletter breaks down the season through the data, highlighting where teams may be stronger or weaker than they appear so you have a clearer view before March. |
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