Kansas State & Creighton Top List of Most Disappointing Teams in Each Conference

Written by Nick Bateman · Follow on X (@nickbateman33)

Every year, someone underachieves. That is the math of college basketball.

If Nebraska is sitting 10 wins above expectation, someone else in the Big Ten is likely sitting 10 wins below it. For every surprise riser, there is a collapse hiding toward the bottom of the standings.

Based on TeamRankings data, these are the biggest disappointments so far in the 2025-26 season.

The ACC has several disappointment candidates:

NC State has not fully lived up to preseason buzz, yet they are still trending toward NCAA Tournament status.

Wake Forest continues to frustrate fans, but they were not projected safely inside the bubble to begin with.

Syracuse sits 15-12 with top 75 metrics, a meaningful jump from finishing 133rd in the final NET last year.

Notre Dame is different.

The Irish finished last season 15-18 and ranked 88th in TeamRankings predictive data. The roster improved. Outside voices created legitimate tournament buzz. TeamRankings had them ranked 61st in the preseason.

Now they sit 12-14 and ranked 77th.

Being ranked 77th means there are 76 teams objectively better at winning basketball games. California, ranked just ahead of them, is 18-8 and alive in bubble conversations because they have maximized their talent.

Notre Dame has not.

The top of the Big 12 is a gauntlet, so a 2-11 conference record looks brutal on paper. But even context cannot soften how far Kansas State has fallen from preseason expectations.

They opened the year ranked 58th in TeamRankings projections. They now sit 84th. That ranking includes a 14-point win over Baylor on Tuesday, the type of bump that often follows a coaching change.

Before Jerome Tang was fired, beat writer Wyatt Wheeler described this season as the most dysfunctional he has covered in over a decade of Division I basketball, worse than 9-23 teams and off-court chaos at previous stops.

When a power conference program is the first to fire its head coach, it is rarely subtle. Something went wrong.

Kansas State entered the year expecting to compete in the deepest league in the country. Instead, they are buried near the bottom and watching expectations dissolve.

Honorable mentions: Baylor, Cincinnati.

Creighton just pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the season, beating UConn on the road in convincing fashion. That win matters. But it does not erase four months of context.

The Bluejays opened the season ranked inside the AP Top 25 and inside the TeamRankings preseason Top 25. They are now ranked 62nd, even after the UConn victory, and sit at just a 19 percent chance to make the tournament. That number was 4 percent before the win.

Does beating UConn soften the blow? Slightly. But relative to preseason expectations, Creighton has fallen further than anyone else in the Big East.

Honorable mentions: Marquette, Providence.

Injuries have played a role. But every team deals with injuries. When the results look like this, it cannot be the full explanation.

Oregon started the season ranked 33rd in TeamRankings predictive metrics. They now sit 90th, a number that implies they would be underdogs against Dayton, Nevada, McNeese, and Yale.

They were picked to finish fifth in the Big Ten, ahead of Michigan State. They were ranked 27th nationally in the preseason. Instead, they opened 3-5 and have gone 0-15 against Quad 1 and Quad 2 opponents.

The underlying profile is just as concerning. They turn the ball over at one of the highest rates in high major basketball, do not force turnovers, and do not shoot efficiently.

Regardless of context, this season has been a disaster relative to where expectations started.

Memphis was picked to finish first in the American preseason poll and currently sits below .500 overall. Conference play has been uneven, and the season as a whole falls well short of the standard Penny Hardaway’s program has set in recent years.

San Francisco received first place votes in the WCC preseason poll alongside Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s. They are now 7-9 in conference play, trailing Oregon State, Washington State, and Pacific.

TeamRankings entered the season with Memphis as the seventh best mid major and San Francisco ninth. Neither is close to postseason basketball right now. Not even the secondary tournaments.

Ole Miss sits 14th in the SEC after entering the season ranked eighth in the preseason poll, just one year removed from a Sweet 16 run.

The Rebels were not viewed as a tournament lock, but most bracket projections expected them to land safely inside the field. TeamRankings had them 37th nationally before the season. They now rank 64th.

The internal tension has been visible. Chris Beard has publicly challenged his roster and even benched his entire starting lineup during a December game. In one early press conference, when asked how the team could improve urgency and effort, AJ Storr responded, “You can’t really do too much.” Beard quickly cut in: “Yeah we can. We can play different players.”

Given the SEC’s depth, there are other disappointed fan bases. Kentucky carried national title buzz. Mississippi State and Oklahoma were expected to hover around the bubble. Auburn’s 14-12 record is underwhelming.

But relative to expectation versus reality, Ole Miss is the clearest answer.

College basketball is noisy. Even if you watch every game, perception and media narratives rarely line up with what the numbers are showing.

This newsletter breaks down the season through the data, highlighting where teams may be stronger or weaker than they appear so you have a clearer view before March.