Bracket Check: Who’s Up? Who’s Down? (Feb. 23)

Written by Nick Bateman · Follow on X (@nickbateman33)

We are 20 days away from Selection Sunday, and the margins are getting thinner.

Every win is moving a team up a seed line. Every loss is flirting with the bubble. With less than a month to go, there is almost no room left for error.

Below, we sort the chaos into three buckets: the teams climbing fast, the ones slipping at the worst possible time, and the situations worth watching as seeds, bubbles, and potential bid thieves continue to collide.

5 Risers: Making Their Move at the Right Time

Below, we'll mark the teams that made a jump and where we have them projected if the season ended today.

1. Missouri - Potential: Last Four In

Missouri’s win against Vanderbilt on Wednesday gave them their fourth Quad 1 win and third Quad 1-A win.

There is still work to do, but the selection committee has been known to overlook a weak strength of schedule in favor of a strong collection of high profile wins.

2. UCF - Potential: 9 Seed

UCF had dropped three in a row and was flirting with bubble status heading into last week. They needed to refocus for a home game against a desperate TCU team and a road test against a rejuvenated Utah squad.

The Knights responded with a 2-0 week and now sit at 9-7 in the first two quadrants, which looks a whole lot better than 7-7.

3. Cincinnati - Potential: Out, But Climbing

This is remarkable from the Bearcats.

They were ranked 153rd in the NET on November 30. They were 8-8 on January 11 and 11-12 on February 7. The fact that they still have a chance with less than a week until March is a valuable lesson in never giving up and a testament to how many resume boosting opportunities the Big 12 provides.

4. Texas A&M - Potential: 10 Seed

TeamRankings remains more bearish on the Aggies than much of the analytical consensus, even after a 2-0 week that included a road Quad 1 win over Oklahoma.

Still, a double digit percentage boost this late in the season is always welcomed.

5. Georgia - Potential: 9 Seed

Georgia has moved from a bubble team to the potential for an 8 or 9 seed after wins over Kentucky and Texas.

Jason Lisk unveils his latest projected 2026 NCAA Tournament Bracket.

Track who’s in, who’s out, and where teams stand as updates roll in over the next month.

5 Fallers: Losing Ground at the Worst Time

With almost no margin for error left, these teams took damaging hits to their tournament profiles.

1. USC - Potential: First Four OUT

It is borderline impossible to see tournament odds plummet this drastically with just a few games left in the season, but USC managed to pull it off.

After suffering a 36 point beatdown at home against Illinois, the Trojans followed it up by hosting Oregon and losing by one.

After starting 12-1 with a 5-1 record against Quad 1 and 2 competition, USC now sits at 18-9 with two Quad 3 losses.

2. San Diego State - Potential: Second Four OUT

A reminder that mid major percentages can swing harder given the limited paths to an automatic bid across the conference.

Losses to Grand Canyon and Colorado State in back to back games are far from ideal for a team that was already firmly on the bubble.

3. Clemson - Potential: 10 Seed

Clemson has lost confidence at the worst possible time.

Two weeks ago, the Tigers were statistically one to two wins away from lock status. That likely remains true, but they only have three games left, including matchups with Louisville and North Carolina.

Hosting 171st ranked Georgia Tech will not move the needle. Clemson almost certainly needs to win one of the next two, which will not be easy for a team trying to refind its identity.

4. UT Martin: 22% Chance to Win Ohio Valley Tournament

Jeremy Shulman’s squad had been coasting as the presumed Ohio Valley automatic qualifier for most of the season, until back to back losses to SEMO and Little Rock.

The Skyhawks were one of the best stories of November after starting 3-0 with two Quad 2 wins over UNLV and Bradley. For context, Miami Ohio has played just one Quad 1 or 2 game all season.

Now alone in fourth place in the Ohio Valley, UT Martin needs to regroup quickly with February 28 marking its final regular season game.

5. Hawaii: 30% Chance to Win Big West Tournament

Hawaii entered the week coming off a 26 point loss to CSU Northridge, raising questions about whether its no help defensive scheme had been solved.

A home loss to 12-16 Cal Poly tightened the Big West race and dropped Hawaii into a tie for fourth place.

The Rainbow Warriors avoided a complete spiral by beating UCSB in overtime on Saturday and can still reclaim favorite status with a strong finish.

5 Things to Watch as We Head Into March

As the margins shrink, these situations could swing seeds, bids, and narratives in a hurry.

1. Miami Ohio

For the first time all season, TeamRankings gives Miami Ohio better odds of finishing 31-0 than any other possible result.

Their toughest remaining test is the regular season finale at Ohio, which will be appointment television if the undefeated run survives until then.

Fun fact: every college basketball team to enter the tournament undefeated has been a 1 seed. TeamRankings predictive metrics suggest Miami Ohio is closer to a 12 seed regardless of record.

Realistically, if the RedHawks go undefeated and win the MAC, the committee will not risk overanalyzing a historic story. An undefeated mid major is not landing on the 11 line.

2. The Mountain West

The Mountain West remains one of the most fascinating leagues to monitor.

Utah State looks safely in. New Mexico and San Diego State are gasping for air on the bubble. Boise State continues to rate well in the metrics despite a Quad 5 home loss to Hawaii Pacific. Nevada has two Quad 4 losses and little realistic path.

It is difficult to imagine the conference falling to a one bid league, especially after receiving a historic six bids just a couple years ago.

3. The Race for the Final 1 Seed

The committee released its late February Bracket Preview, giving insight into which metrics are carrying the most weight. They had Iowa State in the No. 1 seed line, which obviously shifted after the Cyclones lost on Saturday at BYU.

Here's what we have at PoolGenius as of Monday, Feb. 23:

We have Duke moving into the top projected overall seed after beating Michigan on Saturday.

Arizona helped solidify its position with a win at Houston.

UConn currently holds the final No. 1 seed. However, Houston, Iowa State, Florida, Illinois, and Purdue are all in play too.

4. Injury Watch

Texas Tech, BYU, and North Carolina all won Saturday without their injured stars, but one game is not a trend.

The eye test suggests BYU may be best positioned to absorb the absence. North Carolina expects Caleb Wilson back by tournament time, which could dramatically shift its ceiling.

5. Ohio State

The Buckeyes are 0-9 against Quad 1 opponents, a mark that has historically been a deal breaker for the selection committee regardless of strength elsewhere.

Two more chances remain this week: at Iowa on Wednesday and home against Purdue on Sunday.

Falling to 0-11 would almost certainly be non negotiable. Both games effectively function as play in matchups for Ohio State’s at large hopes.

College basketball is noisy. Even if you watch every game, perception and media narratives rarely line up with what the numbers are showing.

This newsletter breaks down the season through the data, highlighting where teams may be stronger or weaker than they appear so you have a clearer view before March.