March Is Here: Conference Tournament Week 1

Written by Nick Bateman · Follow on X (@nickbateman33)

Happy March to those who celebrate. A few weeks ago I warned you how quickly this part of the year flies by. I guess I was right.

While the major conferences rage on for one final week before postseason play, the first wave of mid and low major tournaments is already tipping off.

Cleveland State plays IUPUI in the Horizon League play-in game later today. The loser becomes the first team eliminated in a win or go home race for a national championship. It’s officially happening. We’ve made it.

Today is Part 1 of our conference tournament breakdown. Next Monday, we’ll hit Part 2. We’re diving into the first 11 tournaments that tip between March 2 and March 5.

And it’s only right we start with the Horizon League, which just so happens to have the weirdest conference tournament format in the sport.

Horizon League

Leagues with 11 teams are rare. So are tournament formats like this.

Most conferences trim the bottom of the standings to get to an even bracket. The Horizon League does the opposite. Everyone gets a shot.

That means we open with a play-in game tonight for the right to face 1 seed Wright State. But here’s where it gets strange.

There are 10 teams instead of 8 after the play-in. To reach a Final Four, two first-round winners must play an extra game in the second round, while the other three advance straight to the semifinals.

Then comes the real oddity.

There’s a four-day gap between the first and second rounds. The championship game is played eight days after the tournament tips off, which is almost unheard of at this level.

After that unusual middle stretch, things normalize and a champion emerges from the final four.

The Favorite: Wright State

TeamRankings gives them a 31.79% chance to cut down the nets and secure the league’s NCAA tournament bid.

Sleeper: Oakland

The 4 seed owns a 19.48% title probability and sits firmly in striking distance.

Longshot: Youngstown State

The 9 seed finished just 8-12 in conference play but still holds a 4.19% chance to win the tournament. That is less than three percentage points behind the third-best odds in the league.

Jason Lisk unveils his latest projected 2026 NCAA Tournament Bracket.

Track who’s in, who’s out, and where teams stand as updates roll in over the next month.

Sun Belt (March 3-9 in Pensacola, FL)

What are the odds the two craziest bracket layouts in college basketball happen to be kickstarting March Madness (key word “madness”)?

The Sun Belt has 14 teams, which is another strange number like 10 where you have to get creative. The creativity here is simple: seven straight days of games, with the top 10 seeds getting byes, including two teams (Troy and Marshall) sitting on a five-day bye.

The wildest part is what it means for seeds 11–14. If you’re down there, you have to win seven games in seven days to take the title.

There’s an argument every mid-major conference that can do this should. It gives your best teams a much better chance of avoiding the chaos of March and earning a rightfully earned auto bid.

The incentive is even stronger for leagues like the Missouri Valley, where a team like Belmont can be inches from an at-large bid and still get left out. Making a team like that play three or four games just to get in leaves real room for error after a season that warrants a better shot at postseason basketball.

As far as the Sun Belt goes, there aren’t any teams close to at-large status, so this is just chaotic for the sake of being chaotic.

The Favorite: Troy

TeamRankings gives them a 36.75% chance to cut down the nets and clinch an NCAA tournament berth.

Sleeper: Appalachian State

For a few weeks there, App State was the leader in the clubhouse to earn the 1 seed. They’ve slid down to the 4 seed, but TeamRankings still gives them a 14.23% chance to win it.

Longshot: Arkansas State

The 7 seed has the fourth-best title odds in the conference at 8.99%.

Patriot League (March 3–11 on Campus Sites)

Another tournament with sizable gaps between games, the Patriot League tips off Tuesday and doesn’t conclude until the following Wednesday.

The Favorite: Navy

TeamRankings gives Navy a commanding 62.65% chance to cut down the nets and clinch the league’s NCAA tournament berth.

Sleeper: Colgate

The only other team with double-digit title odds is NCAA tournament mainstay Colgate. As the 3 seed, they’ve been given a 16.78% chance to dethrone Navy.

Longshot: Holy Cross

After going 5-13 in league play and finishing 10-21 overall, Holy Cross still carries a 9.32% chance to reach the semifinals as the 10 seed.

That is notably higher than 8 seed Bucknell and 9 seed Army, signaling that efficiency metrics view Holy Cross as more competitive than their record suggests.

Big South (March 4, 6–8 in Johnson City, TN)

The rare nine-team conference is relatively simple to figure out. The Big South opens with an 8 vs 9 play-in game before shifting into a standard quarterfinal bracket.

The Favorite: High Point

This shapes up as a two-team race, but High Point is the clear front-runner. TeamRankings gives them a 65.27% chance to win it all.

Sleeper: Winthrop

Winthrop earned some national credibility after nearly upsetting Arkansas earlier this season. If anyone is going to topple High Point, it is them. TeamRankings gives them a 19.92% chance to do it.

Longshot: Radford

It is not common for a 3 seed to land in the longshot category, but Radford has been given just a 4.02% chance to cut down the nets.

ASUN (March 4, 6–8 in Jacksonville, FL)

The ASUN tips off Wednesday and is far more wide open than the conferences we’ve covered so far. A straightforward 12-team bracket will crown a champion this Sunday.

As in recent years, the ASUN champion will be among the first teams in the country to officially clinch a 100% locked-in NCAA tournament bid.

The Favorite: Austin Peay

TeamRankings gives Austin Peay a 27.37% chance to cut down the nets and clinch the league’s NCAA tournament berth.

Sleeper: Lipscomb, Central Arkansas, Queens (NC)

Seeded 4, 1, and 3 respectively, these three teams all sit in the 17% to 23% range in title probability. In a bracket this tight, any of them could get hot and take control.

Longshot: FGCU

One of the rare low-major programs with national name recognition, Florida Gulf Coast owns the fifth-best odds in the ASUN at 4.66%. The Eagles have not faced one of the top four contenders since January 23, but they lost by just two on the road to 1 seed Central Arkansas on New Year’s Day.

NEC (March 4, 7, 10 on Campus Sites)

There is not much structural chaos in the NEC, but there is one notable wrinkle: the best team in the conference does not receive a bye, which is rare at this level.

The Favorite: Long Island

TeamRankings gives Long Island a 55.62% chance to cut down the nets and clinch the league’s NCAA tournament berth.

Sleeper: CCSU

The 2 seed still faces an uphill climb, carrying just a 17.07% chance to win the tournament.

Longshot: Wagner

Wagner owns a 2.04% title probability, which is slim, but notably still the fifth-best odds in the conference.

Ohio Valley (March 4–7 in Evansville, IN)

With the championship game set for Saturday, the Ohio Valley will award the first automatic bid of the 2026 NCAA tournament.

Instead of a standard eight-team bracket like the NEC, the OVC gives its top two teams a double bye. As we discussed earlier, this structure is becoming more common and gives regular-season powers a meaningful edge.

The Favorite: Tennessee State

TeamRankings gives Tennessee State a 33.93% chance to cut down the nets and clinch the league’s NCAA tournament berth.

Sleeper: UT Martin

The frontrunner for much of the season has stumbled late, losing three of its last four and five of its last seven after a 16-3 start.

At one point, TeamRankings had UT Martin north of a 40% title probability. A 25-point home loss to Tennessee State on Saturday delivered a major blow, dropping the Skyhawks to a 15.82% chance to win it all.

Longshot: SIU Edwardsville

Back-to-back 20-point wins to close the regular season have the Cougars entering March with momentum. However, the last time they faced Tennessee State, they lost 80-53, a result reflected in their 8.13% title probability.

Summit League (March 4–8 in Sioux Falls, SD)

From Dakota runs to Omaha madness to an Oral Roberts Cinderella story that will never be forgotten, the Summit League always delivers.

The Favorite: North Dakota State

TeamRankings gives North Dakota State a 40.25% chance to cut down the nets and clinch the league’s NCAA tournament berth.

Sleeper: St. Thomas (MN)

The Tommies beat North Dakota State 84-62 this past Thursday, dramatically boosting their odds of reaching their first NCAA tournament in their first season of eligibility.

TeamRankings gives them a 34.94% chance to win it all, which realistically places them right alongside the Bison in the top tier.

Longshot: South Dakota State

The 7 seed in this nine-team conference owns the third-best title odds at 8.56%. The Jackrabbits played solid basketball against Arizona earlier this season and have held their own against the league’s top teams. Efficiency metrics like them far more than their 14-17 record suggests.

MAAC (March 5–8, 10 in Atlantic City, NJ)

Atlantic City, New Jersey. Where dreams are made.

This is easily the most wide open conference tournament we’ve covered so far. Five teams sit in the 13% to 20% range in title probability, meaning there is no clear separation at the top.

The Favorite: Siena

The 3 seed owns the best odds in the conference at 20.85%, making them the technical favorite in what amounts to a statistical coin flip field.

Sleeper: Merrimack

Merrimack joined Division I in 2023 and the MAAC in 2024, so earning the 1 seed this quickly is nothing short of impressive. TeamRankings gives them a 17.74% chance to win it all.

Longshot: Marist

The 5 seed still carries a 15.51% chance to reach the NCAA tournament. On opening night, Marist lost by just four points on the road to Xavier, a reminder that they are more than capable if things break right this week.

Missouri Valley (March 5–8 in St. Louis, MO)

ARCH MADNESS BABY!

The bracket is technically not finalized as of late Sunday night, as seeds 3 through 7 will be determined by a NET tiebreaker once rankings update Monday morning. That said, the shifts are not expected to be drastic enough to meaningfully alter the structure.

The Favorite: Belmont

Belmont owns the best title odds in the field at 31.74%. They also sit in the low 50s in KenPom, giving them a profile that looks stronger than most typical MVC favorites.

Sleeper: Northern Iowa

Remarkably, the current 6 seed holds the second-best odds to win it all at 17.68%. That gap between seed line and probability tells you how little separation there is in this bracket.

Longshot: Illinois State

Illinois State just beat tournament favorite Belmont, reinforcing just how open this field is. At one point the Redbirds were the outright favorite, and even after sliding, they still carry a 15.57% chance to win it all.

WCC (March 5–10 in Las Vegas, NV)

Structurally, the WCC mirrors the Sun Belt. A staggered format gives the league’s two crown jewels, Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s, the cleanest path to the title.

The difference is scale. Instead of seven games in seven days for the bottom seeds, the WCC’s lower tier would need to win six in six days. Either way, the format heavily protects the top.

The Favorite: Gonzaga

Gonzaga owns a massive 73.75% chance to cut down the nets, the most dominant probability we have seen in any conference so far.

Sleeper: Saint Mary’s

Saint Mary’s just beat Gonzaga convincingly on Saturday in what may have been the final regular season meeting between the rivals. TeamRankings still gives the Gaels only an 18.57% chance to do it again in eight days, assuming they get the opportunity.

Longshot: Santa Clara

Being labeled a longshot is not an indictment of Santa Clara’s quality. They currently sit slightly better than 50% to receive an at-large bid. But beating Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga in succession and hoisting the trophy is a different challenge entirely. TeamRankings gives them a 7.02% chance to pull it off.

College basketball is noisy. Even if you watch every game, perception and media narratives rarely line up with what the numbers are showing.

This newsletter breaks down the season through the data, highlighting where teams may be stronger or weaker than they appear so you have a clearer view before March.