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5 Conference Tourneys: Favorites, Sleepers & Longshots
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Due to popular demand, we’re continuing the TeamRankings Conference Tournament Breakdown week.
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🔸 Last Monday we covered the first 11 tournaments tipping off between March 2 and March 5. 🔸 Today we turn to the next wave: the five tournaments beginning between March 6 and March 8. |
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We’ll wrap up the remaining 14 conference tournaments next Monday before returning to Bracket Watch next Thursday.
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The five tournaments we’re covering today are the SoCon, CAA, Big Sky, America East, and Southland.
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And look out for “Starch Madness” in the Big Sky, where 7 of 10 teams have realistic title odds.
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Southern (March 6–9 in Asheville, NC)
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Here we have one clear favorite at the top of the bracket, followed by a cluster of three teams in the chasing pack. That setup should make for a fun tournament in Asheville.
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The Favorite: ETSU
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TeamRankings gives ETSU a 33.74% chance to cut down the nets and secure the league’s NCAA tournament bid.
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Sleeper: Mercer
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The 4 seed owns an 18.32% title probability and sits firmly in striking distance.
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Longshot: Furman
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The 6 seed has the second-best odds of reaching the title game at 35.19%, along with the third-best title odds at 15.88%.
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New Conference Tournament Futures Just Dropped
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Our NCAAB futures have been solid the last four years.
✅ Last year: 4-2 (+10.85 units)
✅ Last four years: 27-26 (+32.75 units)
We just added three conference tournament futures, including a +700 and +500 play.
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CAA (March 6–10 in Washington, DC)
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This tournament is a little more open than some of the others on this list. Two teams sit at the top with similar title odds, followed by a group of three to four sleeper contenders before the rest of the field.
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The Favorite(s): UNCW & Hofstra
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It’s nearly a dead heat between the 1 and 3 seeds in title odds, with UNCW holding a slight edge at 29.64% compared to Hofstra’s 27.13%.
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Sleeper: Charleston
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Chris Mack’s squad has reeled off five straight wins, including a road victory over UNCW this past Sunday. TeamRankings gives the Cougars an 11.87% chance to cut down the nets.
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Longshot: William & Mary
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The 6 seed was viewed as a frontrunner for the CAA autobid back in early December. They still have the ability to beat anyone in the field and carry title odds north of 8% according to TeamRankings.
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Big Sky (March 7–11 in Boise, ID)
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Starch Madness, you’ve got to love it. This is convincingly the most wide open tournament in all of Division I, with seven of the ten teams carrying realistic odds to win the title.
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The Favorite(s): Montana State, Portland State, Northern Colorado
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I can’t lie, as someone who’s projected Portland State to win the Big Sky convincingly for months now, seeing they aren’t even the technical favorite is shocking.
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Montana State leads the way in TeamRankings odds at 21.64%, followed by Portland State at 20.32%, and Northern Colorado at 18.99%. Anyone’s ballgame.
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Sleeper: Eastern Washington
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Eastern Washington finished third in conference play and won eight straight before losing at home to Idaho on Monday. That stretch included wins over Montana State, Portland State, and Northern Colorado. Don’t sleep.
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Longshot: Idaho
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The 7 seed has an 8.38% chance to win the title according to TeamRankings, better odds than both 4 seed Montana and 6 seed Weber State.
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America East (March 7, 10, 14 at Campus Sites)
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The top two seeds are massive favorites here, with no other team holding more than a 6% chance to win the tournament according to TeamRankings projections.
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The Favorite: UMBC
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TeamRankings gives both UMBC and Vermont nearly an 80% chance of meeting in the America East championship. If that matchup happens, UMBC holds a 50.8% chance of winning the title.
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Sleeper: Vermont
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The usual America East tournament mainstay may have to take a backseat this year. TeamRankings still gives Vermont a 35.40% chance to win the title, but it’s hard to ignore UMBC’s odds sitting better than a coin flip.
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Longshot: NJIT
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NJIT has had “team of destiny” vibes all season long. It wouldn’t be surprising at all if they pulled one last rabbit out of the hat.
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Southland (March 8–11 in Lake Charles, LA)
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Another tournament where the top two seeds account for nearly 90% of the odds to win the title, and then there’s everyone else.
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The Favorite: McNeese
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TeamRankings gives McNeese a 64.57% chance at a third straight NCAA tournament appearance. That’s actually their lowest projected conference tournament probability in this run thanks to the emergence of a true challenger.
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Sleeper: Stephen F. Austin
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In reality, SFA and McNeese are co-favorites, but the metrics lean toward McNeese. Stephen F. Austin still holds a 24.72% chance of winning the Southland auto bid despite finishing conference play 20–2 in sole possession of first place.
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Longshot: UT Rio Grande Valley
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A sneaky team that happens to play in a league with two programs inside the NET Top 75. TeamRankings gives UTRGV a 5.45% chance to win the tournament, which is real respect for a longshot and leaves the door open for a miracle run.
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The Best Way to Follow College Hoops
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College basketball is noisy. Even if you watch every game, perception and media narratives rarely line up with what the numbers are showing.
This newsletter breaks down the season through the data, highlighting where teams may be stronger or weaker than they appear so you have a clearer view before March. |
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