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Every Conference Tournament: Favorites, Sleepers & Longshots
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Welcome to Champ Week – Part 3.
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Last week we broke down every conference tournament that tipped off between March 2 and March 8. Today we’re covering the rest.
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To keep this from becoming the longest newsletter of all time, a few conferences will get quick summaries at the end — the SWAC, Conference USA, MEAC, Ivy, Big West, and WAC.
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Meanwhile, some of the stronger mid-major leagues will get full breakdowns. That includes the Mountain West, A-10, MAC, and AAC, where the quality — and the NCAA Tournament implications — are a bit higher.
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ACC (March 10–14 in Charlotte, NC)
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The ACC tournament begins Tuesday at 2 PM ET in Charlotte, with Stanford facing Pitt in what could be Jeff Capel’s final game at Pittsburgh.
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Unlike recent seasons, the opening round carries some intrigue, with Stanford, SMU, and Virginia Tech all hovering around the bubble entering the week.
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The Favorite: Duke
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TeamRankings gives Duke a 70.6% chance to win the tournament, unsurprisingly considering the Blue Devils are one of the best teams in college basketball.
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Sleeper: Louisville
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Listed as the No. 6 seed, Louisville owns the second-highest title odds at 10.10%.
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Longshot: Virginia
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The No. 2 seed sits third in the title odds at 7.31%, giving the Cavaliers an outside path if things break their way.
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Get Ahead on Your Bracket Research 🏀
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We’re dropping a ton of college basketball content on the PoolGenius YouTube channel this week, including:
🔸 5 Tips to Win Your Bracket Pool
🔸 How Many Upsets Should You Pick?
🔸 Bracketology, Sleepers, and Overrated Teams
🔸 LIVE: Selection Sunday Bracket Reaction
Make sure you subscribe so you know when each video drops.
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Big 12 (March 10–14 in Kansas City, MO)
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The Big 12 tournament begins Tuesday at 12:30 PM ET in Kansas City, with Baylor and Arizona State opening the action. Both teams would likely need to win five games in five days to reach the NCAA tournament.
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Cincinnati and West Virginia are two other teams to watch this week, as a couple of big wins could push them onto the right side of the bubble. BYU appears safely in the field as a projected No. 6 or 7 seed but will still be playing in the opening round.
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The conference is extremely top-heavy this season. Only six teams have better than a 0.8% chance to win the tournament, with Arizona leading the way by a wide margin.
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The Favorite: Arizona
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TeamRankings gives Arizona a 40.62% chance to win the tournament. The Wildcats and Houston sit clearly above the rest of the field and are on a potential collision course for the championship game, with both teams holding better than 55% odds to reach it.
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Sleeper: Iowa State
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The No. 5 seed owns the third-best title odds at 11.33%, trailing only Arizona and Houston.
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Longshot: Texas Tech
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Texas Tech is the No. 4 seed and not much of a traditional longshot, but their 6.85% title odds still place them behind the top tier. The Red Raiders have proven they can beat any of the top teams in the conference, so if they get hot, a run is possible.
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Big Ten (March 10–15 in Chicago, IL)
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The Big Ten routinely sends 9 or 10 teams to the NCAA tournament, which makes the final four days of this event some of the most exciting basketball of Champ Week. The first couple of days, however, usually lack much juice.
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Maryland and Oregon, two of the more disappointing teams in Division I this season, tip things off Tuesday at 5 PM ET in Chicago.
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Bubble teams USC and Indiana will play must-win games Wednesday, but the real fun begins Thursday. That slate could feature Ohio State vs Iowa, Wisconsin vs USC, Purdue vs Indiana, and UCLA vs a Minnesota team that beat the Bruins just a couple weeks ago.
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The Favorite: Michigan
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TeamRankings gives Michigan a 49.25% chance to win the tournament. That makes the Wolverines a clear favorite, though not quite to the same level as Duke’s 70%+ odds in the ACC.
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Sleeper: Illinois
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Illinois owns the second-best title odds at 16.67%. As the No. 4 seed, the Illini would only need three wins to take the title and could be on a collision course with Michigan in the semifinals if both teams advance.
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Longshot: Purdue
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It feels strange calling Purdue a longshot, but the Boilermakers enter as the No. 7 seed and are not guaranteed a quarterfinal spot. TeamRankings still gives them an 11.68% chance to win the tournament, and if they advance, they could face No. 3 Nebraska in the quarterfinals on Thursday.
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SEC (March 11–15 in Nashville, TN)
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The SEC tournament tips off Wednesday at 12:30 PM ET in Nashville (I will be there). Last year’s SEC tournament may have been the most stacked conference bracket in college basketball history. The No. 14 seed, Oklahoma, still received a No. 9 seed in the NCAA tournament.
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This year’s No. 14 seed is 13–18 South Carolina, which shows how deep the league was last season. The Wednesday slate won’t be overly exciting, but Oklahoma is quietly hovering around the bubble and Texas could use a win to strengthen its resume.
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Like the Big Ten tournament, the real action begins Thursday when the top teams enter the bracket. Nine teams have at least a 1.0% chance to win the tournament according to TeamRankings.
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The Favorite: Florida
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While several teams have legitimate chances to win the SEC, Florida stands clearly above the rest. TeamRankings gives the Gators a 41.61% chance to win the tournament, and a title run could push them onto the No. 1 seed line in the NCAA tournament.
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Sleeper: Arkansas
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Arkansas has been playing well recently and sits neck-and-neck with Alabama for the second-best title odds at 14.87%. Star Darius Acuff missed the last game (a win at Missouri) but is expected to be ready for the SEC tournament.
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Longshot: Tennessee
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Tennessee is the No. 5 seed with a 7.12% chance to win the tournament. The Volunteers do not receive a double-bye into the quarterfinals like the top four seeds, which makes their path harder, but they still have the talent to make a run.
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Big East (March 11–14 in New York, NY)
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The Big East tournament begins Wednesday at 4 PM ET at Madison Square Garden, but none of the teams playing in the opening round can realistically play their way into the NCAA tournament unless they win the entire event.
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Finally, we get a power conference tournament without a runaway favorite.
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The Favorite: UConn
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TeamRankings gives the No. 2 seed Huskies a 42.95% chance to win the tournament, but that number sits fairly close to No. 1 seed St. John’s at 35.43%.
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Sleeper: Villanova
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The No. 3 seed Wildcats could be somewhat underseeded entering the week. Villanova owns a 12.01% chance to win the tournament according to TeamRankings and could make things interesting if they meet UConn in the semifinals.
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Longshot: Seton Hall
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The numbers suggest this is largely a two-team race between UConn and St. John’s, but Seton Hall is on the outside looking in for the NCAA tournament and could be highly motivated to stack quality wins this week.
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Atlantic 10 (March 11–15 in Pittsburgh, PA)
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The A-10 tournament begins Wednesday at 11:30 AM ET in Pittsburgh with Richmond facing St. Bonaventure. Analytically, they may be the strongest No. 11 and No. 13 seed pairing in any mid-major tournament, which speaks to the depth of a league hoping to send multiple teams to the NCAA tournament after VCU earned the conference’s only bid last year.
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Several teams enter the week with momentum. George Mason is coming off a 29-point win over No. 1 seed Saint Louis, George Washington is quietly dangerous, and Dayton has won seven of its last nine games (with both losses coming to VCU).
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The Favorite: Saint Louis
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This tournament looks like a two-team race. TeamRankings gives No. 1 seed Saint Louis a 43.33% chance to win the title, with No. 2 seed VCU close behind at 31.25%.
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Sleeper: George Washington
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The No. 9 seed owns the fourth-best title odds at 5.97% according to TeamRankings. Dayton is another team to watch as the No. 4 seed with 8.96% odds after their recent hot stretch.
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Longshot: George Mason
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TeamRankings gives George Mason just a 2.78% chance to win the tournament, but the Patriots just beat Saint Louis by 29 points on Saturday and have shown they can compete with the top teams in the conference.
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Mountain West (March 11–14 in Las Vegas, NV)
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The Mountain West uses a standard four-day tournament structure in Las Vegas without double-byes, which leaves plenty of room for chaos.
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Colorado State won eight straight games before falling to Boise State on Saturday, and unless New Mexico or San Diego State cuts down the nets, the Mountain West could be a one-bid league for the first time since Nevada represented the conference alone in 2017.
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The Favorite: Utah State
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The No. 1 seed Aggies enter as the team to beat, with TeamRankings giving Utah State a 34.44% chance to win the tournament.
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Sleeper: Boise State
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Boise State is the No. 6 seed and will have to start in the opening round, but the Broncos still hold the fourth-best title odds at 9.42% according to TeamRankings.
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Longshot: Colorado State
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TeamRankings gives the No. 7 seed Rams just a 2.91% chance to win the tournament, but they recently rattled off eight straight wins and could carry that momentum into the bracket.
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MAC (March 12–14 in Cleveland, OH)
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The MAC bracket layout is brutal for Miami (OH) and Akron, the two clear frontrunners to win the tournament, because neither team receives a bye.
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Miami (OH) entering the week at 31–0 is one of the biggest stories in college basketball. The RedHawks sit on the bubble despite an undefeated conference season, and public consensus suggests the MAC could become a two-bid league if Miami (OH) were to drop its first game of the year this week.
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The wild development here: Miami (OH) is not even the favorite to win the tournament.
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The Favorite: Akron
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TeamRankings gives No. 2 seed Akron a 50% chance to win the tournament, nearly double the odds of No. 1 seed and undefeated Miami (OH), which sits at 25.85%.
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Longshot: Toledo
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This bracket looks like a two-team race between Akron and Miami (OH), which makes everyone else a longshot. Toledo, the No. 4 seed, is the most interesting challenger and could meet Miami (OH) in the semifinals if it gets past Bowling Green. The RedHawks only beat Toledo by two points at home last week.
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American (March 12–15 in Fort Worth, TX)
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The American tournament begins Wednesday and features a bracket structure that rewards the top two teams in the regular season standings with byes into the quarterfinals.
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The conference race essentially comes down to three teams: Tulsa, Wichita State, and South Florida.
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Expansion of the NCAA tournament in the future could help leagues like the American earn additional bids, but for now this looks like a one-bid conference.
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The Favorite: South Florida
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TeamRankings gives the No. 1 seed Bulls a 45.45% chance to win the tournament, comfortably ahead of the rest of the field.
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Sleeper: Tulsa
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Tulsa is the No. 3 seed and will not receive the quarterfinal bye given to the top two seeds, but the Golden Hurricane still own the second-best title odds at 22.59%, even ahead of No. 2 seed Wichita State.
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Longshot: Memphis
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Memphis technically has the talent to win five games in five days, but the path is extremely difficult. The Tigers would need a perfect run through a deep bracket to pull off the upset.
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Quick Hits: More Conference Tournaments
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Below are quick snapshots of several additional conference tournaments using TeamRankings' projected odds to win each tournament.
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SWAC (March 9–14 in Atlanta, GA)
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Favorite: Southern (28.49%), Bethune-Cookman (25.67%)
Sleeper: Texas Southern (8.70%)
Longshot: Arkansas-Pine Bluff (4.96%)
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Conference USA (March 10–14 in Huntsville, AL)
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Favorite: Liberty (26.13%)
Sleeper: Sam Houston State (22.01%)
Longshot: Louisiana Tech (6.88%)
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MEAC (March 11–14 in Norfolk, VA)
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Favorite: Howard (62.74%)
Sleeper: Norfolk State (16.93%)
Longshot: Maryland Eastern Shore (6.48%)
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Ivy League (March 14–15 in Ithaca, NY)
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Favorite: Yale (46.31%)
Sleeper: Cornell (26.19%), Harvard (15.23%)
Longshot: Penn (12.26%)
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Big West (March 11–14 in Henderson, NV)
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Favorite: UC Irvine (36.94%), Hawaii (32.93%)
Sleeper: UC San Diego (10.78%)
Longshot: Cal State Fullerton (3.72%)
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WAC (March 11–14 in Las Vegas, NV)
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Favorite: Utah Valley (49.74%)
Sleeper: Cal Baptist (31.40%)
Longshot: Utah Tech (5.48%)
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Utah Valley recently received another court injunction, meaning the Wolverines are likely eligible to participate in the NCAA tournament this season after weeks of uncertainty following the WAC’s attempt to ban them for “conduct deemed detrimental to the league.”
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The Best Way to Follow College Hoops
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College basketball is noisy. Even if you watch every game, perception and media narratives rarely line up with what the numbers are showing.
This newsletter breaks down the season through the data, highlighting where teams may be stronger or weaker than they appear so you have a clearer view before March. |
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